Back in 1998 the major parties were under pressure from One Nation, particularly in the State of Queensland, where the fledgling party scored well amongst the older, rural, Australian born, less well educated and those with low-income, blue collar jobs. Fast forward to 2011 and the major parties are again under pressure with Green and Independent votes on the rise. This research piece, originally done for the Courier Mail in 1998, profiles the antecedents of the rural protest vote.
Running a fishing lodge can be a complex thing. There are so many variables to take into account, without doubt, the weather has a significant impact on the trout fishery and therefore the fishing.
In our early season the weather cooperated brilliantly. November & December saw clear rivers, sunny days and little wind. The results speak for themselves…….
Andrew from Sydney’s first trip to ORL was for his honeymoon in 2010. He’s subsequently stayed with us a further 3 times including a quick 4 day trip in early November. He landed 11 wild brown’s in his 3 days fishing including a sensational 11 lb monster and 2 x 8lb, 2 x 6lb 3 x 5lb and a 4lb wild brown !
In early December, 3 anglers landed 3 wild New Zealand browns and each of them set a personal record. The 3 browns weighed in at 9lb, 12 lb and new lodge record of 14lb. There was no expensive helicopter required, as all these browns were caught in our local, drive to rivers!
To be honest during our summer (January > March) the weather was rubbish. It was unusually windy and wet. This made the fishing, at times, challenging, however with the help of the wonderful fishing guides that work with us our guests still caught fish and had some memorable moments on the river.
Vaughan and Bess are regular Australian guests @ Owen River Lodge. Whilst Bess went horse riding, Vaughan had some sensational fishing over 4 days of angling adventure. In a 2 day period he landed over 25 wild browns in the 3 > 5 lb range !
Robin & Andrew, from the UK, stayed and fished with us in February. They had some unbelievable fishing, landing 20 browns averaging 4lbs in one day and landing over 50 browns in 6 days
Howard, one of our most regular guests, had four sensational days fishing with his guide David in late March. In his 4 days fishing he landed 24 wild browns including an 8lb & a 9lb caught on consecutive days in the Owen River !
One in four women work as professionals. Their support for Labor candidates steadily increased from 1980 under Coalition Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser and by 2004, this support had levelled off to split 50/50 between Labor and the Coalition.
However, the inner-urban professional seats – such as Melbourne Ports and Brisbane – swung to Coalition Leader Malcolm Turnbull in 2016, bucking the national swing back to Labor in 2016.
About one in four men work as Tradies and one in four women work in clerical and admin jobs.
Since the 1966 election, Tradies have been seen as the pro-union, working class foundation for Labor campaigns, with the politically non-aligned female clerks successfully targeted in 1972 and 1974 to provide the more volatile winning margin in the outer suburbs.
The political significance of these two demographics switched after the period 1977 to 1980, and by 1998-2001, we were more likely to see safe Labor seats dominated by female clerks than by male Tradies, as white-collar workers became more unionised, and many older, blue collar workers such as the Howard Battlers, switched to the Coalition in the outer suburbs.
These two groups have remained the ALP’s campaign focus as Labor’s Working Family Stereotype and in 2016 seats containing the highest proportions of Working Families -such as Burt and Macarthur – swung strongly to Labor and Bill Shorten, even as former pro-Labor professionals moved in the reverse direction towards, small-l Liberal Malcolm Turnbull.
So, the Coalition lost Working Family seats across Australia’s outer suburbs, but clung to power by its fingernails across wealthier, inner urban professional seats.
In this ADS update, we’re publishing the last instalment of John Black’s demographic profiles of Australian voting behaviour, stretching back to the 1966 Federal election.
This instalment covers the period of 1977 to 1980, the mid-point of Malcolm Fraser’s Prime Ministership, which marked a watershed era for the demographic alignments of Australia’s biggest occupational voting blocs: Tradies, Clerks and Professionals.
These three groups determined the outcome of the last election, and they are also likely to determine the outcome of the next election. Read how they came of age here.
78,300 full time jobs were lost for Tradesmen and Tradeswomen in the past year, virtually all of them in the private sector.
65,700 of these full-time jobs lost were formerly held by Tradesmen.
55,500 full time clerical and admin jobs were lost last year.
51,400 of these were former full time jobs in the private sector and 43,800 of them were formerly full time jobs held by women.
A family made up of a Tradesman dad and a mother with a clerical job makes up 22.2 percent of the workforce and 2,669,200 jobs. This is the key middle Australia voting demographic which makes or breaks Government.
In terms of its percentage of the workforce, this demographic has been declining since the GFC, when it was about 25 percent of the workforce.
This is why Governments representing the status quo are not getting re-elected.
The private sector over the past year grew by 131,300 part-time workers, but lost 50,100 full time workers, with a net growth of 81,200 workers. This casualisation of jobs is why incomes are flat.
The public sector grew 28,700 full time jobs and lost 22,600 part-time jobs, with a net growth of 6,100 jobs.
So, all the growth over the past year in full time jobs has been in the public sector, with the private sector going backwards by 50,100 jobs.
The big growth in high wage jobs continued among professionals where some 47,300 jobs were created in total and virtually all of them were for women employed in the private sector.
There have been an extra 102,900 jobs created in past year for semi-skilled and unskilled blue collar workers, with two-thirds of them part time. Virtually all of these jobs were in the private sector.
When we look at Industries, we saw a major recent jump in manufacturing jobs in the past year of more than 100,000 workers, with a similar rise for the public-sector trio of public admin, education, and health. These are the industries where the union movement still has strong representation and which support Labor or Green candidates.
So, during the past year, Green voters have been travelling well in the inner cities, Labor voters (and the unions) have been doing ok in the outer industrial suburbs, but working family jobs continue to be hollowed out in the middle-class suburbs.
I’m strapped down tight in a Bell Jet helicopter two kilometres above the western coastline of British Columbia and I find myself hanging on to pretty much anything in the chopper to convince myself that flying through the air in a machine without wings is a perfectly natural and safe thing to do.
Sitting up front next to the pilot, I’m surrounded on four sides by clear Perspex and it feels like the only think stopping me from dropping two kilometres is the seatbelt strap.
Now we’re scooting along at up to 200 km/h and the tips of the twin props are nudging the speed of sound, thumping out a booming bass accompaniment to the headphones sound track of Neil Young, the Canadian Godfather of grunge rock, on electric guitar belting out Rockin’ in the Free World.
Down we go again dropping a few thousand feet and slowing to about 15 knots as the Douglas fir tree tops sweep past well above us on either side.
Now Don is spotting salmon in the Wakeman River about 50 feet below. He looks first for the schools of fish, then individual trophy sized fish. The shape, size and colour indicate the species of salmon, whether pink, sockeye, Coho, chum or Chinook.
He finds a likely spot, where the Atway River joins the Wakeman and we drop down vertically, like moving down a magic green lift, with Douglas Firs and Alder trees decked with Spanish moss, surrounding the chopper on three sides.
While we’re waiting for the blades to slow and stop, Don gives us a routine warning about there being a resident Grizzly Bear in this spot, but at least he usually makes a lot of noise from the opposite bank, so we get plenty of warning. Apparently it’s the black bears that like to sneak around from behind, if they are seriously stalking you, so we should keep looking over shoulders here, just in case.
Just in case, Don’s packing a 12 gauge chrome plated pump action shotgun with three inch magnum single ball shot, kept in a back holster at all times.
For an Aussie farm boy, this is bloke heaven.
I flick out the fly to schools of ten pound Coho and some 30 pound Chinooks. The Coho seem to like my fly – a lot – but the big Chinooks prove elusive and they keep jumping from the water, just out of casting range. Still a ten pound fighting fish on a fly makes it memorable in any fly fisherman’s almanac and ten of them in an afternoon makes it the trip of a lifetime.
Earlier that day we had ridden the Bell with Don to lunch on the Kingcome Glacier on the Silverthorne Icefield. While I did the mature thing and peed my initials in the snow, Don pulled out portable table and chairs and laid out red or white wine, gourmet antipasto, fresh fruit and profiteroles, all served on crisp yellow tablecloths and napkins contrasted against the ice blue of the glacier.
After we’d climbed stiffly back into the chopper, feeling rather pudgy with all the layers of clothing and too much food, Don lifted off the ice and took the Bell straight out over the Kingcome Valley floor, 4000 feet below our lunch site and then began a steep descent. The pit of my stomach told me it was all over, but it had been a great ride. I turned up the headphones Richard Wagner’s Flight of the Valkyries. You had to be there.
If a roller coaster is a seven on the zero to ten ghost train score of scary things, and a 100 foot bungy jump is an eight, then the sensation of looking at the ground drop 4000 feet beneath you is scary on a completely different level, like a roller coasters for grown-ups.
The next day I was off with Don to Kakweiken River, a short flight in the chopper, but impossible commute in a realistic time frame, by boat or overland.
When we head over a likely spot, we see a big lumbering female Grizzly, followed by three ‘small’ cubs … so Don decides on discretion and we keep flying.
It’s on this trip that I discover the only fool proof way to see bears in British Columbia – you forget to bring your camera.
Now we’re dropping down near the famous two mile pool, into a tight landing spot right alongside a massive migrating shoal. The normally clear turquoise shaded Kakweiken looks black from a massive shoal of big migrating Coho.
A father and son from the US are on the trip with me and they’re using lures, which the big Coho find irresistible and after an hour, they caught and safely released a combined 50 Coho. The Coho didn’t seem to mind – they had a date with some sandy gravel a few km upstream, followed by an uncertain fate at the hands of mother nature, so they just got on with it, stoic these Canadians.
Then I note Don shouting at us. He picks up two big rocks and starts bashing them together. I think what have I done wrong here? Turns out it is not me he’s shouting at, but a pesky Grizzly Bear which has been watching us catch what he considers HIS fish.
At this point I reach for my camera … not there. Then I ask the US dad to please snap a few shots of me fishing, with the bear in the background. My editor will love this. This is my idea of a real story.
Don had other ideas and, seeing as he had the big gun and was standing between us and the helicopter, we did what we told.
By this time, the bear was fast approaching the chopper from the opposite end of the pool. And well, Grizzly Bears don’t practice catch and release.
My US companion kindly snapped a few pictures as we trotted back and were quickly on our way, relieved to hear the reassuring thump, thump, of the chopper blades.
Adrenalin rush? Absolutely! Would I do it again? Yep.
Back at Nimmo Bay we experience the sort of service that this resort arguably the best of its kind in the world. Certainly the testimonials from the rich, famous and powerful, provide enough evidence, from captains of industry, to the cast of Boston Legal and former US president George H Bush, confirm what I know already.
The adventure guide Mike is there to meet us and takes to the heated gear room, to help us get out of the waders and boots. In my intertidal chalet, my housekeeper Gillian has been at work, arranging everything with neatness verging on the OCD – I’ve never had my toothpaste tube rolled up for me before.
I take an hour out for a massage from Reiki master Jelena, to iron out my kinks, then pop down the ramp to the outdoor hot tub and plunge pool, to enjoy a preprandial foaming libation, kindly served to me from Brianna, who made sure my favourite brand of single malt was always available, along with a complimentary hand rolled Cuban cigar, presumably kept on hand in case William Shatner popped down from his nearby digs for a bit of R and R.
Then it was an open shower by the plunge pool and I toddled off, purring, to the floating fire deck, where the guests snuggled under woollen throw rugs, to do very little except relax, watch the Nimmo Bay sunset and be indulged with entrees prepared by Chef Sandi and resident Baker Teri.
The dinners were invariably delicious and I even picked up some tips from Sandi on how to clean my barbecue plate back home. She was a class act in the tucker department.
Fraser, our host was there, with Mike and Troy to organise activities for those who wanted to chill and avoid the excitement of the chopper rides and being chased by bears. These kinder, gentler souls could visit the local indigenous Canadian cultural museum, enjoy a spot of yoga, watch migrating whales broaching or follow some of the local killer whale pack around the waters between Nimmo and Vancouver Island. There was also more family oriented activities, like wildlife walks, white water rafting, kayaking, rock climbing, meeting the local survivalist expert …
So, if you’re an old fart like me, who just likes to go fly fishing, it was heaven on a stick. Oh, and if you really like anadrenalin rush, spare a day for Perry, the local fly fishing expert, who takes you out in his jet boat, skimming over the shallows in narrow streams inches from overhanging leaves. Perry doesn’t take a gun. If he sees a bear he reckons he and his mates chase them, just for the fun of seeing a big grizzly clamber a tree. So he said. Perry has been an Australian with stories like this.
Many of the clients were grandfathers and sons, fathers and their kids, mothers and kids; sometimes three generations … there was a fair bit of bonding going on here.
The costs for the basic wilderness package were about $1500 Canadian a day each, plus gratuities. The chopper rides added another $1500 to $2600 each per day depending on how many mates you teamed up with but the chopper is at your disposal all day and the pilot doubles up as the guide and the bloke who chases away very large bad hairy things that want to eat you.
This price seems competitive with heli fishing in New Zealand, where the helicopters tend to just to drop you off and pick you up, which means you pay to transport the guide and you pay the guide. So factor that into any costs.
But if you’re quibbling about a grand here or there, forget it. Nimmo is all about indulgence. Think Fantasy Island with a fly rod.
I loved it, especially as the Canadian Tourism Commission were picking up the tab, but the realities were pretty practical, really. I was on a 14 hour mid-morning direct flight from Sydney to Vancouver and you arrive three hours before you leave local time. I took a detour to another resort, but I think the local connections would normally get you to Nimmo Bay around about the same local time you left Australia. That’s fast.
I’m doing it again. Soon as I can really. I made the mistake of telling my wife about the bears. Bugger.
The Australian economy has been hit by a series of economic upheavals and mixed economic responses from Governments since the GFC of 2008.
These factors have totally transformed the nature of the Australian Education Market as shown by the interractive ESRI Australia maps which can be seen by clicking on the above picture.
The maps are based on school SA4 campus location and enrolment data collected from the Australian Curriculum Assessment and Reporting Authority, via the My School website. The reader should note some schools on the edges of an SA4 will draw in students from adjoining SA4 labour force regions.
The maps show Independent market share for 2008 in the map on the left, Independent market share for 2015 in the centre map and Independent market share changes between 2008 and 2015 in the map at right. All three maps can be zoomed and moved in unison via the left hand map, enabling the reader to make easy comparisons for identical regions.
The reader can see that the regions with the highest Independent market share in 2008 (typically wealthier, inner urban areas) have been the areas where the sector has lost most market share between 2008 and 2015. This loss of market share has gone overwhelmingly to the state school sector, via high SES or semi-independent State schools. In the lower income, outer urban areas, the trend has been in the reverse direction, with the state school sector losing students to low fee Independent schools.
Only about 45 per cent of year 12 students from Government schools in 2015 said they had a Bachelor degree as their main post-school destination, but the equivalent figure from non-Government year 12 completers was about 63 per cent.
Our company Education Geographics profiles non-Government schools and we currently have about ten per cent of the Australian Independent student market. And what happens in our market affects yours. From our national research and our individual school profiles we are picking up significant changes to the profile of students at all three sectors which can be traced back to long run cultural changes and to the impact of digital disruption to the jobs and incomes of Non-Government school parents.