Demographic analysis to manage & market your school
We had an afternoon to spare in beautiful downturn Smithers and paused, en route to the off licence, for this stunning shot of a twilight soccer match. Qld doesn’t have the snowy backdrop, but it could have twilight sport with daylight saving.
Hey Big Guy! We made it to Smithers! Cheery welcome from on old furry friend in the airport foyer. And from Reg Collingwood #Spatsizi
A menu, a wine list, a backdrop of beautiful Vancouver harbour…aaahh … we’re finally off on Air Canada to #Spatsizi
We’re off on Air Canada to #Spatsizi finally, after 2.5 years of covid.
No dramas at Sydney today if you’re 3 hours plus early. As the signs says, we can relax (touch wood).
If you want to know which federal seats are most likely to swing strongly to the Teal candidates at the Federal election on May 21, check out the 🔗Map below.
The map shows the percentage of top income quartile persons in 2022 Federal seats in darker shades of teal and is modelled by ADS from the latest available Australian Tax Office data.
Demographic break downs of national Newspoll summaries published in The Australian between early 2020 and the start of the 2022 election campaign, indicate that about one in eight voters in this top income quartile had swung their previously strong support in primary vote terms from the Coalition, directly across to Voices or “Teal” candidates, where a Teal candidate was available.
To put this in perspective, in early 2020, nearly half of all voters in this income group cast their vote for Coalition candidates and in the first quarter of 2022, this figure was down to one in three.
While this may well be the national sentiment among top income earners, where no Teal candidate is available at this election, there is still likely to be a smaller Two Party Preferred swing from the Coalition to Labor from about one in 12 voters among this group. This disaffection from top income workers represents serious hurt for Liberal MPs in what have been their traditional strongholds.
We’ve been looking at the demographic breakdowns by income in individual seat polls and nothing we’ve seen so far contradicts the above trend up to the second week of the campaign.
Nonetheless, we will be watching future Newspoll summaries, presuming another one is available before the election.
Monday 20th June, 2022
Party Machines Conking Out
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
 |
To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review, Monday, June 20, 2022, pages from 36 to 37 -1.pdf |
2022 Federal Election Swing Map
The big winners and losers in the 2022 Election can be seen in our online interactive ADS 2022 Election Map.
The five big players in 2022 were the traditional majors: the ALP and the Coalition, but also the minor parties, like the Greens, the Teals and the Others (including One Nation and the UAP).
The influence of the minor parties in 2022 was wielded not so much through their preferences, but through the sheer size of their primary votes, as the support base for the major parties shrunk, with the ALP going backwards in some of its once-safest seats in Victoria to One Nation, the UAP and the Teals and the Liberal Party copping an absolute hiding in its wealthiest seats to Independents and in its former stronghold of Western Australia.
Teal campaigns run by the Climate 200 group wiped out the Green primary vote when they both ran in safe Liberal like Kooyong, but where there was no Teal candidate, as we saw in three Brisbane River seats won by the Greens, the Liberal primary vote losses switched directly to the Greens.
The primary vote for the Others group exceeded 20 percent after ten percent plus swings to the minor parties in normally-solid Labor seats across Victoria, NSW and Tasmania.
While the Liberal Party has a problem in its safest seats with the higher-income Teals, the ALP has a problem in its safest, lower-income seats, with right wing minor parties.
The interactive Esri map also shows an innovative cube layer for two of the key demographic drivers for the Teal vote: Female Professionals and Top Quartile income earners, so you can see how these two variables interact.
See story in The Australian Financial Review
Click to view interactive ADS 2022 Election Map
2022 Election Results – Summary for EGS Clients
Friday 27th May, 2022
by EGS Founder John Black
Did a short presentation with Saul Eslake today on the 2022 election results and the implications for Education Geographics Client Schools, with particular relevance to the election of new Teal MPs. It makes interesting reading.
🔗 https://www.educationgeographics.net.au/pdf/Presentation 27 May 2022.pdf
Election Profiles 2022
Monday 23rd May, 2022
🎙 John Black: Election earthquake signals death of major parties
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas
 |
To Listen click link |
| 🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/election-earthquake-signals-death-of-major-parties/13893828
Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies |
Image: ABC RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/
Election Profiles 2022
Monday 23rd May, 2022
Women’s teal wave could keep breaking in 2025
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
|
To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review, Monday, May 23, 2022, pages from 13 to 13.pdf |
Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com
1 Day to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Friday 20th May,2022
Coalition Closing Gap On Labor
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
|
To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review, Friday, May 20, 2022, pages from 39 to 39.pdf |
Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com
2 Days to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Due to popular demand (my wife Jeanine thought it was a good idea), I’m re-posting the PDF I prepared a few months ago for my Australian Financial Review article of February 15 on the rise of the Teal vote and the associated decline of the primary vote for the major parties. It may help you on election night to understand why the major party primary votes have fallen, and also to follow the larger swings to Labor in seats where popular Coalition members have retired, such as Bennelong or Casey.
Monday14th February, 2022
Political Voices: Past, Present & Future
 |
To Read click link |
| 🔗 https://www.educationgeographics.net.au/political-voices-past-present-and-future/ |
3 days to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Wednesday 18th May,2022
How House Prices Reflect The Way You Vote
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
|
To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review, Wednesday, May 18, 2022, pages from 14 to 14.pdf |
Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com
5 Days to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Monday 16th May, 2022
🎙 John Black: Election Campaign Enters Final Sprint
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas
|
To Listen click link |
| 🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/election-campaign-enters-final-sprint/13883250
Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies |
Image: ABC RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/
1 Week to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Friday 13th, May 2022
As tradies deserted ALP, so career women turn Liberal seats teal
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
|
To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review Friday May 13, 2022 Page 43 snip to PDF.pdf |
Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com
3 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Wednesday 4th May 2022
Inner Brissie could have gone teal
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
|
To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review, Wednesday, May 4, 2022, pages from 46 to 46.pdf |
Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com
3 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Monday 2nd May, 2022
🎙 John Black: Labor on track for win
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas
|
To Listen click link |
| 🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/labor-on-track-for-election-win/13862818
Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies |
Image: ABC RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/
4 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Thursday 21 April, 2022
Albo’s not kicking with the wind
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
|
To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review, Thursday, April 21, 2022, pages from 38 to 38.pdf |
Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com
3 Weeks to Go to Pre-Poll Voting
Tuesday 19th April, 2022
 |
Starts May 9, 2022, 12 days before voting day on May 21, 2022. |
| 🔗 https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/how-to-vote/how-to-cast-your-vote |
4 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Tuesday 19th April, 2022
🎙 John Black: Election still Labor’s to lose
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas
|
To Listen click link |
| 🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/john-black:-the-election-is-still-labors-to-lose/13844148
Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies |
Image: ABC RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/
6 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Tuesday 13th April, 2022
Too soon to call, but the demographics favour labor
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
|
To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review, Wednesday, April 13, 2022, pages from 43 to 43.pdf |
Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com
6 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Monday 11th April, 2022
🎙 “Are the published opinion polls correct?”
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas
|
To Listen click link |
| 🔗 https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/are-the-published-opinion-polls-correct/13835438 Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies |
Available now through the ABC listen App – bit.ly/ABCradioApp
Image: ABC RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/
11 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Tuesday 29th March, 2022
Don’t order the sympathy cards for Morrison just yet
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
|
To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review, Tuesday, March 29, 2022, pages from 39 to 39.pdf |
Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com
14 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Tuesday 15th February, 2022
Women To Deliver Shock Election
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion
|
To Read click link |
| 🔗 Financial Review, Tuesday, February 15, 2022, pages from 36 to 37.pdf |
Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com
14 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022
Monday14th February, 2022
Political Voices: Past, Present & Future
|
To Read click link |
| 🔗 https://www.educationgeographics.net.au/political-voices-past-present-and-future/ |
If you want to know which federal seats were more likely to show swings to the Opposition at the start of this election campaign, then the Esri map in this link isn’t a bad place to start.
Link 🔗 2022 FEDERAL ELECTION KEY INDICATORS (arcgis.com)
The online Esri map uses the latest Australian Electoral Commission data on age groups for men and women by current federal seats and draws on 50 years of election profiling of Federal and State elections.
When you open the Esri map, click on the three dots at top right to see the legend and then on the bookmark icon to zip between capital cities and territories. The map works on mobile phones and PCs.
The dark maroon electorates are those containing a mix of age groups covering maturing traditional swinging voters and aspirational voters in the ages at which they traditionally begin to move their vote from Labor to the Coalition.
We see strong clusters of these seats containing high proportions of persons aged 35 to 49 years in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. They cover a range of political allegiances, from traditionally safe Liberal to strong Labor.
With 2PP swings to the ALP of about five percent in the first week of the campaign, we would expect to see a range of swings of up to 25 percent, with plus five percent for Labor being the mid-point.
Of course, the figures will change during the campaign and other demographic indicators will emerge to pull some seats to swing to the Coalition. We will map these during the coming weeks.
This election I’m writing some research articles for the Australian Financial Review and doing Monday morning interviews with Radio National on election modelling for the May 21, 2022 election.
Catch you on the campaign trail, folks.
Profiling of the Voices 2019 demographics by Australian Development Strategies shows that grassroots campaigns by Voices candidates against Liberals in 2022 – led by professional women – could be even more devastating for Labor MPs if turned against them in 2025.
This means that the Federal election of 2022 is not so much a contest between the Liberal Party and the Labor Party, but more a contest about what future Labor and Liberal Governments will look like.
In the mid-1980’s, male Tradespersons was the biggest single male or female occupation group in Australia and Tradies dominated the ALP voting profile, and Female Professionals played an equally important role for the Liberal voting profile.
But both major parties have been challenged in 2022 by the loss of their historical bases of primary vote support during the past 40 years, among Tradies and Miners for Labor, and among Professionals for the Liberals.
The problem for both major parties is that, by November 2021, Female Professionals was the biggest single male or female occupation group in Australia and there were twice as many Professional Persons as Tradespersons, Clerks or Service Workers. And their vote is up for grabs.
I chart the demographics underling the decline in the attached
🔗 PDF – Political Voices Past, Present and Future
Coalition candidates in 2022 are vulnerable to well-funded and more professionally-managed “Voices” campaigns run by local activists, particularly when factionalised party machines select a favourite candidate with a negative personal vote, as this gives a leg-up to a Voices campaign.
Australian Development Strategies Modelling of booth-level profiles in a selection of Urban and Rural 2019 seats won or strongly contested by Independent or Green candidates, shows Voices candidates attracted support from some fast-growing demographics, including Agnostics and better-educated, professional women.
Economic trends infer the current demographic base of Voices candidates is likely to grow over time and, with a Labor win likely in 2022, this base could prove a bigger threat to Labor in 2025 than it is to the Liberals in 2022
Our ADS Senior Mapper Dr Jeanine McMullan has a 🔗Map showing the potential impact of Voices candidates in 2022.
The computed predicted Voices 2CP votes for Sydney (left) and Melbourne (right
Our EGS Spatial Analyst and Senior Mapper Dr Jeanine McMullan has just recorded a new video.
In the video, headed The Power of the Esri Map Module, Jeanine conveys her sense of excitement at being able to explore innovative new map layers of small-scale data which she can superimpose on EGS catchment maps, so schools can improve how they spatially manage their school to the benefit of their students and their families.
On a practical level, Jeanine and I explain how the layers on an EGS school map can be used to design the most cost-effective school bus routes and stops, based on ease of access from existing students and also from potential additional students, whose families match your school profile.
This means your wrapped school bus can serve as a mobile marketing platform in the most prospective streets in your catchment, as it takes your current students to and from school.
The route design can be adapted annually to changing marketing and logistics strategies, with the new layout downloaded and sent to school drivers or bus companies, and posted on school websites.
Jeanine then shows her genuine enthusiasm for new advanced features in map design which, for example, can help a school begin to estimate the environmental cost in terms of carbon credits of various transport strategies, how to make of use of emergency map layers, showing, for example, flooding risks and fire updates, as well as longer term development plans from your local authorities.
Jun 22
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2022 Federal Election Swing Map
Category:Election Profiles,MAY 21 ELECTION COMMENTSThe big winners and losers in the 2022 Election can be seen in our online interactive ADS 2022 Election Map.
The five big players in 2022 were the traditional majors: the ALP and the Coalition, but also the minor parties, like the Greens, the Teals and the Others (including One Nation and the UAP).
The influence of the minor parties in 2022 was wielded not so much through their preferences, but through the sheer size of their primary votes, as the support base for the major parties shrunk, with the ALP going backwards in some of its once-safest seats in Victoria to One Nation, the UAP and the Teals and the Liberal Party copping an absolute hiding in its wealthiest seats to Independents and in its former stronghold of Western Australia.
Teal campaigns run by the Climate 200 group wiped out the Green primary vote when they both ran in safe Liberal like Kooyong, but where there was no Teal candidate, as we saw in three Brisbane River seats won by the Greens, the Liberal primary vote losses switched directly to the Greens.
The primary vote for the Others group exceeded 20 percent after ten percent plus swings to the minor parties in normally-solid Labor seats across Victoria, NSW and Tasmania.
While the Liberal Party has a problem in its safest seats with the higher-income Teals, the ALP has a problem in its safest, lower-income seats, with right wing minor parties.
The interactive Esri map also shows an innovative cube layer for two of the key demographic drivers for the Teal vote: Female Professionals and Top Quartile income earners, so you can see how these two variables interact.
See story in The Australian Financial Review
Click to view interactive ADS 2022 Election Map