Category Archives: By-Elections

  • -
I’ve written a profile of the by-election on Saturday in Dunkley for the Australian Financial Review and we have added Map.

Dunkley By-Election

Category:By-Elections,Dunkley By-Election

I’ve written a profile of the by-election on Saturday in Dunkley for the Australian Financial Review, putting it in the context of our 2022 National Election Personal Vote Profiles and our profiles in Aston and Fadden.    See AFR story here: 🔗 https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dunkley-exposes-further-shift-away-from-major-parties-20240303-p5f9dw The three individual seat profiles use ADS modelling of personal votes to


  • -
Read the full background stories about the Aspirational Left Families now reshaping Australia

New Face of Politics

Category:By-Elections,Demographics

Read the full background stories about the Aspirational Left Families now reshaping Australia Three key decisions that adults in Australia are making about their own lives, and their families, revolve around choosing who to vote for in an election, staying healthy and giving their kids the best education they can. Sarah Ho, who moved with


  • -
Tax cut targets voted Labour into power by John Black

Tax cut targets voted Labor into power

Category:By-Elections

I got a great run in the Australian Financial Review on Wednesday this week on the need for a fair dinkum progressive economic reform package from the new Government, to pay for rising costs in Aged Care, Health, Defence and the NDIS, something that all income groups in Australia could support. For those with an


  • -
Eden-Monaro by-election snapshot of results, Swing to the ALP on the day by SA2, 4th July 2020.

National implications of Eden-Monaro by-election

Category:By-Elections

The Eden-Monaro by-election was held on July 4 and won by Labor’s Kristy McBain, despite a small 2PP swing to the Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs. Notwithstanding the small net swing, the range of swings for and against the ALP were 25 percent, which indicated that there was a considerable range of political views about each


  • -
Eden Monaro 2020 map

Eden-Monaro by-election 2020

Category:By-Elections

By JOHN BLACK, Founder of ADS The Eden-Monaro by-election will be held on July 4. With a week to go, Labor’s Kristy McBain is the bookies’ favourite on $1.70 to win, with published robo-polls giving her 53 percent of the two-party preferred (2PP) vote. Despite trailing in the robo-polls and with Sportsbet paying $2.25, I


  • -
Map of Longman by Election 2018 by Australian Development Strategies.

LONGMAN BY-ELECTION 2018

Category:By-Elections,National 2019 Tags : 

The ADS team has prepared an exhaustive profile of by-election swings in Bennelong, New England, Longman and Mayo. A full report of the swings and their implications for the 2019 election appears in the Weekend Australian. Below is a link to the maps of the swings and the associated demographic drivers for Longman. Click away


  • -
Malcolm Turnbull campaigns in Caboolture, in the Queensland seat of Longman.

Divining votes all about swings and roundabouts at by-elections

Category:By-Elections,National 2019 Tags : 

Provided your humble correspondent is not eaten by a grizzly bear next week while trout-hunting in the wilds of northwest Canada, he will be back in time to help our team sift through the demographics of Super Saturday. We will be looking for demographically driven swings across the booths in Longman and Braddon that are