Category Archives: Demographics

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John Black was interviewed by 2GB’s John Stanley this morning about his current predictions for the next federal election due before May 17.

2GB’s John Stanley & John Black 30th Dec, 2024

Category:Australia Votes,Demographics,National 2025Tags : 

I was interviewed by 2GB’s John Stanley this morning about my current predictions for the next federal election due before May 17, which currently puts Peter Dutton ahead in the race to win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives and hence form a Coalition Government with Peter Dutton as Prime Minister.

Here’s the link to my interview with John Stanley:

And here’s the link to my original predictions published this week in the Australian Financial Review New Year’s edition. 🔗https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/it-looks-like-albo-might-need-that-beach-house-in-2025-20241227-p5l0ss

During the chat with John today we canvassed aggregated polling from Resolve Political Monitor published in the Sydney Morning Herald today 🔗https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-loses-ground-in-biggest-states-but-albanese-still-has-edge-on-dutton-as-pm-20241219-p5kzrv.html  which confirmed the alarming drop in support for the Albanese Government late in 2024.

This currently puts Peter Dutton ahead in the race to win a majority of seats in House of Representatives with big gains in seats from New South Wales and Victoria.

This election just got interesting.


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Webinar with Saul Eslake will focus on the impact of the US Presidential Election on the Australian economy.

Webinar: Saul Eslake on US Presidential Election Impact on Australian Economy

Category:Demographics,EducationTags : 

We are pleased to welcome back Australia’s living economic legend Saul Eslake to our Education Geographics Webinars on November 15, when Saul will focus on the impact of the US Presidential Election on the Australian economy in the lead-up to the Australian General Election due by May 2025.

Whoever wins, the outcome of the United States elections for the US President and for the Congress will have profound impacts for the next four years on world trade, on global inflation, and our regional stability.

For example, big increases in US Tariffs could force up inflation in the United States, and this would soon be felt in Australia, increasing inflationary pressures and reducing the likelihood of Interest Rate cuts in the lead-up to the Australian election.

It’s for clients only and If you are a client of Education Geographics, Health Geographics, or Australian Development Strategies and you haven’t yet received your invitation, get in touch with us via https://www.educationgeographics.net.au/contact-us/


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I was interviewed by 2GB’s John Stanley this week, following my articles in the Australian Financial Review and my social media post on last weekend’s Queensland State election.  

John Stanley & John Black 28th October, 2024

Category:Demographics,Election Profiles,Qld Election 2024Tags : 

I was interviewed by 2GB’s John Stanley this week, following my articles in the Australian Financial Review and my social media post on last weekend’s Queensland State election.  

The interview with John was longer than usual and gave us a chance to deal a bit more in-depth with the political implications of the State election for the major political parties and for the Federal election, due next May.

You can listen to the interview here:
https://omny.fm/shows/nights/john-john-black-28th-october


View LinkedIn Social Media Post – 28th October 2024


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Last weekend The Australian Financial Review published my short review of the role of religion and ethnicity in Australian politics since the 1960s.

John Stanley & John Black 8th July, 2024

Category:Demographics,Election Profile 2024Tags : 

Last weekend The Australian Financial Review published my short review of the role of religion and ethnicity in Australian politics since the 1960s.

My article was written in the context of the rise of the Muslim vote in the UK election last week and the implications of this outcome for the Australian General election, scheduled for 2025.

Subscribers can find the AFR article here: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-muslim-vote-was-a-disaster-for-starmer-and-could-be-for-albanese-20240705-p5jrfm

I based part of the article on the huge swings which took place against the UK Labour Party in electorates with large Muslim populations and canvassed how this sort of campaign and result could be translated into Australian Federal electorates, virtually all of which are now held by Labor MPs.

I did some follow up interviews with 2GB, including one with John Stanley, which you can access here: 

The interview with John Stanley was one of a series of interviews we have done profiling of Australian elections. This time we canvassed the Financial Review article and rise of strategic voting and the additional impact this could have for ALP MPs in 2025 , as it did for Liberal MPs during the 2022 challenges from Teal candidates.


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I canvas some of the underlying demographics to this trend with John Stanley on Monday and the link the podcast is here

John Stanley & John Black 17th June, 2024

Category:Demographics,Election Profile 2024Tags : 

Political Opinion polls can be pretty unreliable at times, but lately they’ve all been moving in the same direction, which is down for the satisfaction for Anthony Albanese as PM, down for the ALP primary vote, down for the Two Party Preferred Labor vote and down for the job  the Albanese Govt is doing on some of it’s key portfolios, such as the Environment, the Economy and Immigration.

On Monday we had two polls telling a similar story: the Resolve Strategic in the Sydney Morning Herald and Freshwater Strategy in the Australian Financial Review and they show a continued slide for Labor in evidence since the Voice Referendum support began fading in mid-2023.

I canvas some of the underlying demographics to this trend with John Stanley on Monday and the link the podcast is here: ……

 

 


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Health Geographics has won the prestigious InfoSol 2024 Award for the Best Business Dashboard 2024, for its Private Health Care Australia Dash App.

HGS Win InfoSol 2024 Award

Category:DemographicsTags : 

Health Geographics has won the prestigious InfoSol 2024 Award for the Best Business Dashboard 2024, for its Private Health Care Australia Dash App.

Paul Grill, the CEO of Infosol personally congratulated HGS and its CEO Dr Jeanine McMullan on the achievement which has previously been won by major international marketing companies such as Salesforce.

Paul said: “Congratulations to you and your team for an outstanding presentation and submission. The Best Business Dashboard represents the best business use case and result and the judges really liked your use of the cube.”

The nine-cell Cube was developed by Dr McMullan to explain the profiles of more than 14 million Australians with private health insurance. It shows increasing per capita membership of health care funds on one axis and increase benefits paid per member on the other axis.

Dr McMullan said: “Some demographics on the Cube have very high levels of private health insurance, but draw very little in benefits per member, while others have relatively low levels of insurance, but rely heavily on benefits provided by health insurance, due to chronic illness.

“We used the Cube as a consistent measure across both the Dashboard and the associated Map, as it explains not just the importance of demographic profiles of PHA members, but also the significance of where they live for policy makers and politicians.”

 

Health Geographics has won the prestigious InfoSol 2024 Award for the Best Business Dashboard 2024, for its Private Health Care Australia Dash App.


Health Geographics is a sister company of Education Geographics, which won the InfoSol 2023 Award for the Most Valuable Dashboard.

EGS and HGS were established, using the knowledge base developed by their parent company Australian Development Strategies over 50 years of profiling spatial data on political, demographic and economic trends across Australia.

Former Australian Senator and ADS Founder John Black congratulated the HGS team on the new interactive dashboard design and its associated online Esri map.

Mr Black said: “As a former Australian Senator, I know how hard it can be to access National Cabinet Ministers and to hold their attention for more than 30 seconds when you do.

“So, when Private Healthcare Australia asked us to help, we looked at it from the point of view of the person on the other side of the desk, the Cabinet Minister, who wants to know who pays and who benefits.

“We worked with our stats team to break down and model a huge wall of data from the health bureaucracy into two dependent variables: the percentage of persons with health insurance and the benefits per member.

“Our Health Geographics CEO Dr Jeanine McMullan then designed an innovative multi-dimensional cube, tracking who pays on one axis and who benefits on the other and describing each coloured and numbered cell with its own key political stereotype which was displayed on a map of Australian electorates.

“Our award-winning designer Reg Kernke linked the stereotypes to an Infosol Dashboard which summarised each cell in the Cube in both words and tables.

“In a series of moving dials for each Australian electorate, the dashboard goes on to show health indicators – along with the numbers of swinging voters and how they voted last election.

“The dashboard does a deep dive into the demographics of each cell on the cube and links that with our national database with a thousand variables across 50 detailed interactive charts and tables of the top seats.

“And finally, the Cabinet Minister could zoom in on our national ESRI map to find their own electorate and see how it scored on the key economic, demographic and political drivers.”

The CEO of Private Healthcare Australia Dr Rachel David congratulated Health Geographics and Dr McMullan.

“Private Healthcare Australia (PHA) engaged Health Geographics to develop and design a dashboard (demographic mapping tool) to assist with its engagement and policy advocacy with the Australian Government, and to support member health funds better understand the changing demographics of private health insurance members and how best to address the needs of their customers.

“Health Geographics developed an accessible, easy to use visual asset which provides a demographic analysis, profiling and mapping of PHI membership across Australia and mapped data from PHA, Australian Bureau of Statistics, including the latest census data to specific federal electorates, including information on age, profession, cultural background and income bands which provides an insight into what members are expecting of both private health insurers and government.

“PHA is working with the Australian Government to ensure the private health system is fit for purpose, the participation levers for private insurance are appropriately targeted and the needs of the Australian public are met now and into the future.

“In 2023, Health Geographics updated the dashboard with the latest demographic data and electorate mapping to ensure it is current and effective. The upgrade included providing secure access to member health funds for use in research, evaluating, delivering and designing better quality products and services, and developing pro-consumer policy.


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Chat with John Stanley of 2GB/4BC this week, at the tail end of yet another hot and humid Queensland summer of cyclones, heatwaves and floods.

John Stanley and John Black – 26th March, 2024

Category:Demographics,Election ProfilesTags : 

I caught up with John Stanley from 2GB/4BC on Tuesday night for an informal chat about an election review article I’d written for the Australian Financial Review on Monday. Here is a  .pdf link to that page.

John and I talked about demographic and political events and themes over the timeline since the May 21, Federal 2022 election, including the curious cases of State and Federal leaders from supposedly opposing parties, and why they manage to share what, for them and their constituents, can be a mutually beneficial political relationship, as Frenemies.

As I was often told when I was a member of the Australian Senate: Your enemies aren’t the ones sitting opposite you mate, they’re the ones behind you.

I’ve just finished writing a longer piece for the AFR on the long term Australian demographic trends dominating Federal politics now and into the next decade, which is in the AFR Easter Edition today. I hope you enjoy it.

 


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Australian Female Participation Rates and Independent School Market share. As the female jobs increased, so did Independent Market Share.

Australian Female Participation Rates and Independent School Market share.

Category:Demographics,EducationTags : 

🎓I put on my Education Geographics hat today to write an opinion piece for the Australian Financial Review for Tuesday’s paper and you’ll find it now in the online edition on this link (behind the paywall):

🔗  View this story in the AFR

The story discusses the choices confronting all parents when they choose a school for their kids. Essentially, my experience profiling schools over the last 20 years doing hundreds of detailed school profiles points to the balance between aspiration and affordability as being the key determinant of school choice. 🏣

As more women have entered the workforce during the last two decades, they have been able to afford a greater range of choices for their kids, across the three sectors. You can see that in the little chart here on Australian Female Participation Rates and Independent School Market share. As the female jobs increased, so did Independent Market Share. It’s the job itself that pays the school fees and the actual size of the pay check is not as significant.


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John Stanley and John Black – 8th November

Category:DemographicsTags : 

I had the pleasure of meeting with John Stanley of 2GB/4BC for a captivating conversation about Australian and international demographics. We didn’t shy away from the pressing current events either, delving into the intersection of demographics and the ever-evolving world around us. I hope you find it informative.

 


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Education Geographics has won the prestigious InfoSol 2023 Award for the Most Valuable Dashboard, for its Australian School App.

EGS Wins InfoSol 2023 Award

Category:Demographics,Education

Education Geographics has won the prestigious InfoSol 2023 Award for the Most Valuable Dashboard, for its Australian School App which is now driving record enrolment growth for school leadership teams across 130 Australian Non-government schools.

2023 EGS Dashboard App - Stones Corner College (Demo)

Paul Grill, the CEO of Infosol personally congratulated EGS and its CEO and dashboard designer Reg Kernke on the achievement which has previously been won by major international marketing companies such as Salesforce. Paul said: “There was strong competition this year but your dashboard definitely impressed the judges the most.”

Reg said the new Squirrel dashboard app was a powerful analytics application built and delivered by our team of developers, including EGS Spatial Analyst Dr Jeanine McMullan and our award-winning team of statisticians.

“We have been able to accommodate all of our existing 130 users across all mainland Australian states to access individual reports with bespoke analysis and summaries, with almost unlimited growth potential in user numbers as our automation strategy continues to include AI.

“Over Christmas 2022, EGS was able to successfully decommission the previous dashboarding tool and replace it with Squirrel365 and InfoBurst without incurring additional operating costs.

“The schools love it and Australian non-Government school enrolments are growing at record levels.”

Education Geographics is a sister company of Health Geographics and the two retail companies provide Squirrel dashboards and Esri maps to private and public sector participants in education and health industries in Australia.

EGS and HGS were established, using the knowledge base developed by their parent company Australian Development Strategies over 50 years of profiling spatial data on political, demographic and economic trends across Australia.

Former Australian Senator and ADS Founder John Black congratulated Reg and the EGS team on the new interactive dashboard design and its associated online Esri map.

He said: “As our automation program continues to involve more AI solutions drawing on the dataset from our unique ADS school models, we would be looking to take Education Geographics into comparable overseas education markets in North American and Britain.

“Parents love their kids and they want to give them the best educational start in life that they can afford. These principles are universal and this means there’s a big international market for EGS”.