Category Archives: Education

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Independent School Enrolments By Streets and By Schools

COMPETITION AT THE COALFACE

Category:Education Tags : 

Last year I presented some school stats from our national research dataset to a meeting of Victorian Bursars. In one chart, shown below, I ranked Australian Independent enrolments by neighbourhood, according to the average P-12 fees shown by the Household Expenditure Survey, and I ranked the Independent enrolments by school, using the average P-12 fees from My School. Then we took the two sets of numbers and inserted them in the same schematic.

Independent School Enrolments By Streets and By Schools

So what you are looking at here is the average number of students across Australia on the vertical axis and the fees paid by parents and charged by schools on the horizontal axis. The students by suburbs are distributed in a nice blue bell curve pattern, with a mid-point about $10,000 and a longish tail out to the high fee end.

The students distributed by schools, on the other hand, shown in maroon, are clustered towards the low fee end, with a mid-point of about $8,000 and a large bump at the fair right hand side, for the high fee schools. This leaves a dearth of middle fee schools, compared to the average fees paid in the neighbourhoods which provide their students.

This infers schools in the third fee quartile charging between $8,000 and $17,000 should have been growing strongly in recent years, shouldn’t they? But we know from My School data they weren’t.

The My School statistics show half of the increases in Independent enrolments from 2008 to 2017 were in the bottom fee quartile of schools by student numbers, while three quarters of the increase were in the bottom two fee quartiles of schools. This means lower fee schools have been growing much faster than those in the top half of the fee range, but within the top half, there has also been a jump in demand for schools at the very high fee end, charging $25,000 and above. (Bear in mind these national P-12 fee figures tend to be higher in Victoria, and lower in Queensland).

And there has been a softening of demand in recent years for places in middle fee schools charging fees either side of the $10,000 half way mark.

From our national data on fees and our modelling of more than 100 Non-Government schools, we know demand has continued to grow for low fee Independent schools in outer metropolitan areas, among lower SES self-employed working families and supporters of more evangelical religions. The picture changes as we move closer to the higher SES suburbs closest to the CBD.

In recent years, the middle fee schools in middle class suburbs have been adversely impacted by a loss of part time jobs for mothers, who have been unable to return to the workforce in their former sales or clerical jobs, specifically to pay for Independent school fees, as these are jobs being hit hardest by digital disruption. It is these parents who are now crowding out very fast growing high SES State schools in middle white collar suburbs.

The middle class families lucky enough to find part time clerical or sales work in jobs most impacted by technology are living in the third quartile suburbs in our schematic, but more of them are choosing lower fee schools than they would have chosen in a more prosperous economic climate.

The wealth effect among more asset rich families has boosted demand for Independent school places in the higher SES inner suburbs, thanks to sustained low interest rates.

This means economic factors have pulled more of the central bell curve down the fee ranges towards lower fee schools in outer metropolitan areas, while the wealth effect has pulled some professional families in the third quartile up towards the higher fee end. This has left something of a vacuum for the middle fee schools, now competing more with a more aggressive State school sector.

In the future, I don’t think the wealth effect can be sustained much longer, with tighter lending regulation by APRA doing the RBA’s job of higher interest rates in driving down previously fast rising house prices, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. This infers a softening of demand and a more competitive market in these suburbs for higher fee schools.

If the upswing in the jobs market over the past year or so continues into 2019, we would expect to see more of the third quartile families having the confidence to pay medium to high school fees. If however, the 2018 upswing flattens out during the election campaign in 2019, middle class families across the country will choose the more affordable lower fee Independent school options, or drift off to the State school sector.


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SES Funding Map - Education Geographics

SES FUNDING AND POSSIBLE WINNERS AND LOSERS

Category:Education Tags : 

The Commonwealth Government has recently adopted changes in Federal funding for Non-Government schools. These changes remove the spatial weighting for Occupation and Education from the old Howard-era SES scores and instead rely on data linkages to provide a direct measure of matched Personal Income Tax (PIT) for parents and guardians.

A higher PIT means higher SES scores for parents and guardians, lower Government subsidies and higher school fees, after transitioning periods and subject to loadings. With all other factors being equal, the additional fees to be paid by parents rise by about $300 for secondary students for each additional SES point.

Due to the lack of official information released about the impact of these changes on individual school communities, we have had to rely on whatever information was publicly available to assess their broader impact on specific demographic groups.

Following the recent by-election in Longman, it has become obvious parents are deeply concerned at any changes to the long-standing Commonwealth Funding formula and that these changes could have a political impact on the election due in May next year. To better inform the public and parents, we have constructed an interactive Map to show some reasonable impressions of how these changes could impact on current Federal seats.

It should be stressed however that these changes by the Commonwealth will be based on the incomes of parents and guardians at each school, rather than on the average residents and voters in our map. There are also caps on the minimum and maximum subsidies from the Commonwealth to minimise extreme variations and there are loadings for specific needs. So the funding for each school is not determined exclusively by a school’s SES score.

From our working knowledge of individual profiles of Non-Government schools, it can be concluded that the incomes of parents and guardians will be higher than those of non-parents as many parents take steps to earn additional income specifically to pay for their children’s education in Independent or in Catholic schools.

The map also shows 2016 Two Party Preferred votes in the same seats for the ALP and Coalition, 2016 primary House of Representative votes for the Greens and 2016 Primary Senate votes for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation.

It appears from the analysis underlying the map data, that the biggest increase in non-Government school fees will be felt in Mining seats, where younger, blue collar parents tend to choose better-paid jobs, often specifically to fund school fees and the mortgage on the family home. This change has been brought about mainly by the fact that blue collar jobs were accorded relatively low SES status under the old SES formula. With this weighting removed, their SES score will rise and the Government subsidy fall, driving up fees.

Conversely, the bigger winners appear to be parents typically living in inner urban areas, with incomes marginally above average, but with extremely high SES weightings for their tertiary education and professional jobs under the old SES formula. This weighting acted, in effect as a de facto measure of job security and superannuation entitlements and when it is removed, their new SES score tends to fall considerably. The extent is difficult to measure however, as these seats also contain high percentages of tertiary students, who we can assume do not have school aged children.

Click on image to view SES Funding Map

SES Funding Map - Education Geographics


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Raise the Scarlet High - Glyn Davis - Vice-Chancellor, the University of Melbourne

RAISE THE SCARLET STANDARD HIGH

Category:Education Tags : 

29 August 2018

AFR Higher Education Conference

“Raise the Scarlet Standard High”

by Glyn Davis – Vice-Chancellor, the University of Melbourne

Glyn Davis - Vice-Chancellor, the University of Melbourne

Thank you Shadow Minister.

My thanks to everyone for this nomination and award, and for those generous tributes.  To be valued by peers is the most important recognition possible, and I am deeply grateful.

In the spirit of a lifetime award, and given a brief to provide light entertainment before an important address by Shadow Education Minister Tanya Plibersek, I have been asked to reflect on being a vice-chancellor.  After three years in the role at Griffith University, and nearly 14 at Melbourne, it is a pleasure to offer a few homilies.

All this said, every vice-chancellor’s experience is different.  Circumstances change, the possible one day becomes unimaginable the next.  Context is everything.

And no one listens to advice anyway, so if I offer five observations drawn from my time as a Vice-Chancellor, it is in the certain knowledge they will be no use to you whatsoever.

To read the rest of this article please CLICK HERE.


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Digital Disruption Vs Wealth - Education Geographics, John Black

DIGITAL DISRUPTION VS WEALTH EFFECT

Category:Education Tags : 

From 2008 to 2017, half the increases in Independent enrolments have been in the bottom fee quartile of schools by student numbers.

Three quarters of the increases have been within the bottom two fee quartiles of schools by student numbers.

However, around 2014, this pattern of growth changed and from 2014 to 2017, the growth in Independent schools charging $5,000 to $11,000 slowed, due to losses of working family jobs in their dominant catchment suburbs.

Growth however, jumped for some high fee schools, covering predominantly higher SES suburbs, due to growth of professional jobs and the wealth effect of low interest rates, driving up the value of investments in real estate and equities.

This pattern has been observed in the national data, such as we see above and it has been noticed in the profiles of more than 100 larger non-Government schools.

In some Non-Government schools with wedge-shaped catchments covering both inner-urban professional areas and more middle-class areas further from the CBD, we have seen both of the above trends in the same catchment, with enrolments growing in inner urban professional areas, but declining in middle class suburbs.


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John Black with Jack D of ESRI

MEETING WITH JACK D – ESRI

Category:Education Tags : 

Jeanine and I are soaking up the latest GIS, Stats, AR developments at the Esri User Conference 2018 in San Diego with 18,000 other participants.

EGS are development partners with Esri in Australia.

We had a short meeting today with Jack D, the international President of Esri who is keenly interested in teaching kids about GIS.  Jack is the founder and owner of Esri.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Dangermond

 


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GFC-impact-on-three-sectors- Education Geographics

2017 EDUCATION STATS ROUND UP

Category:Education Tags : 

Here is a summary of slides presented in late 2017 to Principals, Vice Principals, Business Managers and Marketers.

Data is sourced from the five yearly Census results, the annual ABS school census, My School, ABS Labour Market releases, Digital Finance Analytics and Education Geographics Research.

These slides show

  • The characteristics of suburbs where each sector has been gaining or losing enrolments and market share (not always the same thing).
  • The national impact of the GFC on longer term enrolment trends for each sector.
  • The state wide impact of the decline in manufacturing and mining jobs for each Education sector.
  • Longer and shorter term impact on Independent school enrolments across increasing school fee ranges.
  • Maps at SA4 Labour Force Region level showing spatial impact of the labour market changes since the GFC.
  • The longer term impact of Digital Disruption on working family jobs for Tradies and Clerks, the jobs which pay school fees for one in four Independent school students.
  • The impact of longer term trends in tertiary education and marriages for Gen X Catholic mothers.
  • What could happen to young highly geared Independent school families when interest rates start to rise.
  • Recurrent themes of change for the three sectors.
  • How Non-Government schools can take charge of Big Data and think spatially and demographically to minimise risk and maximise opportunities.

 

Click on link to view:  https://www.educationgeographics.net.au/pdf/2017 Stats Round Up.pdf

 

 


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EDUCATION SECTOR CHANGES 2008-2015

Category:Education Tags : 

Comparison Map-EDUCATION SECTOR CHANGES 2008-2015

The Australian economy has been hit by a series of economic upheavals and mixed economic responses from Governments since the GFC of 2008.

These factors have totally transformed the nature of the Australian Education Market as shown by the interractive ESRI Australia maps which can be seen by clicking on the above picture.

The maps are based on school SA4 campus location and enrolment data collected from the Australian Curriculum Assessment and Reporting Authority, via the My School website. The reader should note some schools on the edges of an SA4 will draw in students from adjoining SA4 labour force regions.

The maps show Independent market share for 2008 in the map on the left, Independent market share for 2015 in the centre map and Independent market share changes between 2008 and 2015 in the map at right. All three maps can be zoomed and moved in unison via the left hand map, enabling the reader to make easy comparisons for identical regions.

The reader can see that the regions with the highest Independent market share in 2008 (typically wealthier, inner urban areas) have been the areas where the sector has lost most market share between 2008 and 2015. This loss of market share has gone overwhelmingly to the state school sector, via high SES or semi-independent State schools. In the lower income, outer urban areas, the trend has been in the reverse direction, with the state school sector losing students to low fee Independent schools.


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JOB MARKET CHANGES HIT SCHOOLS & UNIS

Category:Education Tags : 

Only about 45 per cent of year 12 students from Government schools in 2015 said they had a Bachelor degree as their main post-school destination, but the equivalent figure from non-Government year 12 completers was about 63 per cent.

Our company Education Geographics profiles non-Government schools and we currently have about ten per cent of the Australian Independent student market. And what happens in our market affects yours. From our national research and our individual school profiles we are picking up significant changes to the profile of students at all three sectors which can be traced back to long run cultural changes and to the impact of digital disruption to the jobs and incomes of Non-Government school parents.

Read More of this Article …  >Click Here

 

Click to view the full Go8 News Magazine.

The story has been run with the permission of the Go8 News.

 


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LATEST RESEARCH

Category:Education Tags : 

 

The Australian economy has been hit by a series of economic upheavals and mixed economic responses from Governments since the GFC of 2008.

The Australian economy has been hit by a series of economic upheavals and mixed economic responses from Governments since the GFC of 2008. These factors have totally transformed the nature of the Australian Education Market as shown by the interractive ESRI Australia maps which can be seen by clicking on the above picture.

The maps are based on school SA4 campus location and enrolment data collected from the Australian Curriculum Assessment and Reporting Authority, via the My School website. The reader should note some schools on the edges of an SA4 will draw in students from adjoining SA4 labour force regions.

The maps show Independent market share for 2008 in the map on the left, Independent market share for 2015 in the centre map and Independent market share changes between 2008 and 2015 in the map at right. All three maps can be zoomed and moved in unison via the left hand map, enabling the reader to make easy comparisons for identical regions.

The reader can see that the regions with the highest Independent market share in 2008 (typically wealthier, inner urban areas) have been the areas where the sector has lost most market share between 2008 and 2015. This loss of market share has gone overwhelmingly to the state school sector, via high SES or semi-independent State schools. In the lower income, outer urban areas, the trend has been in the reverse direction, with the state school sector losing students to low fee Independent schools.