Category Archives: Election Profiles

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ABC 7.30 Report – Laura Tingle & John Black

Category:Australia Votes,Election Profiles,Federal Election 2025

I’ve been a bit busy lately analysing polling and election data to make any social media posts and I’d like to make amends by posting my comments I made on the ABC 7.30 Report with Laura Tingle on Thursday night. 🔗 https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NC2501H076S00 (The interview with Laura starts 14:10 on the timeline of the video) My


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I was interviewed by 2GB’s John Stanley this week, following my articles in the Australian Financial Review and my social media post on last weekend’s Queensland State election.  

John Stanley & John Black 28th October, 2024

Category:Demographics,Election Profiles,Qld Election 2024 Tags : 

I was interviewed by 2GB’s John Stanley this week, following my articles in the Australian Financial Review and my social media post on last weekend’s Queensland State election.   The interview with John was longer than usual and gave us a chance to deal a bit more in-depth with the political implications of the State election


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Qld vote a pivotal time for Greens. Queensland vote a pivotal moment for Greens,  as it analyses the electoral fortunes of the Greens since the party rose from the ashes of the old Australian Democrats 20 years ago.

Queensland vote a pivotal moment for Greens

Category:Election Profiles,Qld Election 2024 Tags : 

I wrote a Queensland State election preview for the Australian Financial Review which appeared at the weekend and the link is here, albeit behind the AFR paywall.   https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/queensland-vote-a-pivotal-moment-for-greens-20241024-p5kkyl The story is headlined:  Queensland vote a pivotal moment for Greens, as it analyses the electoral fortunes of the Greens since the party rose from the ashes


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Last weekend The Australian Financial Review published my short review of the role of religion and ethnicity in Australian politics since the 1960s.

John Stanley & John Black 8th July, 2024

Category:Demographics,Election Profile 2024 Tags : 

Last weekend The Australian Financial Review published my short review of the role of religion and ethnicity in Australian politics since the 1960s. My article was written in the context of the rise of the Muslim vote in the UK election last week and the implications of this outcome for the Australian General election, scheduled


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I canvas some of the underlying demographics to this trend with John Stanley on Monday and the link the podcast is here

John Stanley & John Black 17th June, 2024

Category:Demographics,Election Profile 2024 Tags : 

Political Opinion polls can be pretty unreliable at times, but lately they’ve all been moving in the same direction, which is down for the satisfaction for Anthony Albanese as PM, down for the ALP primary vote, down for the Two Party Preferred Labor vote and down for the job  the Albanese Govt is doing on


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Chat with John Stanley of 2GB/4BC this week, at the tail end of yet another hot and humid Queensland summer of cyclones, heatwaves and floods.

John Stanley and John Black – 26th March, 2024

Category:Demographics,Election Profiles Tags : 

I caught up with John Stanley from 2GB/4BC on Tuesday night for an informal chat about an election review article I’d written for the Australian Financial Review on Monday. Here is a  .pdf link to that page. John and I talked about demographic and political events and themes over the timeline since the May 21,


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There’s an hilarious cartoon in the Australian Financial Review today, with a story from me below it. My op ed piece runs through the elections and by-elections we’ve had since the last Federal election on May 21 2022. There’s some good news in there for the Government I think, from the evidence and explanations of why it’s occurring.

What happened on the weekend to rev up the week ahead.

Category:Election Profiles

There’s an hilarious cartoon in the Australian Financial Review today, with a story from me below it. My op ed piece runs through the elections and by-elections we’ve had since the last Federal election on May 21 2022. There’s some good news in there for the Government I think, from the evidence and explanations of


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Chat with John Stanley of 2GB/4BC this week, at the tail end of yet another hot and humid Queensland summer of cyclones, heatwaves and floods.

John Stanley and John Black – 29th January, 2024

Category:Election Profiles Tags : 

Had a chat with John Stanley of 2GB/4BC this week, at the tail end of yet another hot and humid Queensland summer of cyclones, heatwaves and  floods. I recall making the suggestion to John that if the Labor PM was planning on fighting another election over the impact of global warming, then it would be


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Seats won by major political groups in 2022 by SES & income quartiles

The odds still point to another close Labor win in 2025.

Category:Election Profiles Tags : 

My editor has okayed me posting the original story on spatial electoral strategy from the Australian Financial Review’s special New Year’s Edition and here it is. It looks as though 2024 will be a rerun of 2023 in many respects, albeit with signs of cresting and then stabilising for population growth, prices and interest rates.


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The quest for unclaimed ground, table 2 shows 20 seats which changed hands in 2022 by new MP and Party, votes, SES & Income Quartiles

The Quest for Unclaimed Ground

Category:Election Profiles Tags : 

I have an election strategy piece in the Australian Financial Review special New Year’s Edition for 2024. For AFR subscribers, the link can be found here: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/odds-for-2024-point-to-another-close-labor-win-in-2025-20231212-p5eqv2 The thrust of the AFR article is that both leaders of the two major parties seem to be talking to the converted demographics which already dominate their own