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Category Archives: Election Profiles

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2022 Federal Election Top Income Quartile Map

2022 Federal Election Top Income Quartile Map

Category:Election Profiles,MAY 21 ELECTION COMMENTS Tags : 

If you want to know which federal seats are most likely to swing strongly to the Teal candidates at the Federal election on May 21, check out the 🔗Map below.

2022 Federal Election Top Income Quartile Map

The map shows  the percentage of top income quartile persons in 2022 Federal seats in darker shades of teal and is modelled by ADS from the latest available Australian Tax Office data.

Demographic break downs of national Newspoll summaries published in The Australian between early 2020 and the start of the 2022 election campaign, indicate that about one in eight voters in this top income quartile had swung their previously strong support in primary vote terms from the Coalition, directly across to Voices or “Teal” candidates, where a Teal candidate was available.

To put this in perspective, in early 2020, nearly half of all voters in this income group cast their vote for Coalition candidates and in the first quarter of 2022, this figure was down to one in three.

While this may well be the national sentiment among top income earners, where no Teal candidate is available at this election, there is still likely to be a smaller Two Party Preferred swing from the Coalition to Labor from about one in 12 voters among this group.  This disaffection from top income workers represents serious hurt for Liberal MPs in what have been their traditional strongholds.

We’ve been looking at the demographic breakdowns by income in individual seat polls and nothing we’ve seen so far contradicts the above trend up to the second week of the campaign.

Nonetheless, we will be watching future Newspoll summaries, presuming another one is available before the election.


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Australia votes on Saturday 21, 2022 and commented by John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Federal Election Profiles 2022

Category:Election Profiles,National 2022 Tags : 

Election Profiles 2022

Monday 23rd May, 2022
🎙
John Black: Election earthquake signals death of major parties
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas

To Listen click link
🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/election-earthquake-signals-death-of-major-parties/13893828

Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Image: ABC  RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/


Election Profiles 2022

Monday 23rd May, 2022
Women’s teal wave could keep breaking in 2025
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Womens Teal Vote Could Keep Breaking in 2025

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Monday, May 23, 2022, pages from 13 to 13.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


1 Day to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Friday 20th May,2022
Coalition Closing Gap On Labor
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Coalition closing gap on Labor by John Black

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Friday, May 20, 2022, pages from 39 to 39.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


2 Days to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Due to popular demand (my wife Jeanine thought it was a good idea), I’m re-posting the PDF I prepared a few months ago for my Australian Financial Review article of February 15 on the rise of the Teal vote and the associated decline of the primary vote for the major parties. It may help you on election night to understand why the major party primary votes have fallen, and also to  follow the larger swings to Labor in seats where popular Coalition members have retired, such as Bennelong or Casey.

Monday14th February, 2022
Political Voices: Past, Present & Future

 To Read click link
🔗 https://www.educationgeographics.net.au/political-voices-past-present-and-future/

 


3 days to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Wednesday 18th May,2022
How House Prices Reflect The Way You Vote
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

How house prices reflect the way you vote by John Black

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Wednesday, May 18, 2022, pages from 14 to 14.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com

 


5 Days to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Monday 16th May, 2022
🎙
John Black: Election Campaign Enters Final Sprint
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas

To Listen click link
🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/election-campaign-enters-final-sprint/13883250

Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Image: ABC  RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/


1 Week to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Friday 13th, May 2022
As tradies deserted ALP, so career women turn Liberal seats teal
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

As tradies deserted ALP, so career women turn Liberal seats teal. Female professionals lead the demographic desertion in what use to be the safest Coalition electorates.

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review Friday May 13, 2022 Page 43 snip to PDF.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


3 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Wednesday 4th May 2022
Inner Brissie could have gone teal
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Inner Brissie could have gone Teal

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Wednesday, May 4, 2022, pages from 46 to 46.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


3 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Wednesday 4th May 2022
Inner Brissie could have gone teal
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Wednesday, May 4, 2022, pages from 46 to 46.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


3 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Monday 2nd May, 2022
🎙
John Black: Labor on track for win
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas

ABC RN To Listen click link
🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/labor-on-track-for-election-win/13862818

Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Image: ABC  RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/

 

4 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Thursday 21 April, 2022
Albo’s not kicking with the wind
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Albo's not kicking with the wind. Despite the self-inflicted wounds, Labour remains in front in a majority of seats. But the margins are getting tighter.

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Thursday, April 21, 2022, pages from 38 to 38.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com

 

3 Weeks to Go to Pre-Poll Voting

Tuesday 19th April, 2022

Australia Votes May 21, 2022 comments by John Black former Labor Senator  Starts May 9, 2022, 12 days before voting day on May 21, 2022.
🔗 https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/how-to-vote/how-to-cast-your-vote

 


4 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Tuesday 19th April, 2022
🎙
John Black: Election still Labor’s to lose
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas

ABC RN To Listen click link
🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/john-black:-the-election-is-still-labors-to-lose/13844148

Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Image: ABC  RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/


6 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Tuesday 13th April, 2022
Too soon to call, but the demographics favour labor
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Too soon to call, but the demographics favour labor

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Wednesday, April 13, 2022, pages from 43 to 43.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


6 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Monday 11th April, 2022
🎙 “Are the published opinion polls correct?”
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas

To Listen click link
🔗 https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/are-the-published-opinion-polls-correct/13835438 

Guest: 
John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Available now through the ABC listen App – bit.ly/ABCradioApp

Image: ABC  RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/


11 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Tuesday 29th March, 2022
Don’t order the sympathy cards for Morrison just yet
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Don't order the sympathy cards for Morrison just yet

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Tuesday, March 29, 2022, pages from 39 to 39.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


14 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Tuesday 15th February, 2022
Women To Deliver Shock Election
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Women to deliver election shocks

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Tuesday, February 15, 2022, pages from 36 to 37.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


14 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Monday14th February, 2022
Political Voices: Past, Present & Future

 To Read click link
🔗 https://www.educationgeographics.net.au/political-voices-past-present-and-future/

 


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Key Swing Indicator Map for 2022 Federal Election

Key Swing Indicator Map for 2022 Federal Election

Category:Election Profiles,National 2022 Tags : 

If you want to know which federal seats were more likely to show swings to the Opposition at the start of this election campaign, then the Esri map in this link isn’t a bad place to start. 

Link 🔗  2022 FEDERAL ELECTION KEY INDICATORS (arcgis.com)

Key Swing Indicator Map for 2022 Federal Election

The online Esri map uses the latest Australian Electoral Commission data on age groups for men and women by current federal seats and draws on 50 years of election profiling of Federal and State elections.  

When you open the Esri map, click on the three dots at top right to see the legend and then on the bookmark icon to zip between capital cities and territories. The map works on mobile phones and PCs.

The dark maroon electorates are those containing a mix of age groups covering maturing traditional swinging voters and aspirational voters in the ages at which they traditionally begin to move their vote from Labor to the Coalition. 

We see strong clusters of these seats containing high proportions of persons aged 35 to 49 years in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. They cover a range of political allegiances, from traditionally safe Liberal to strong Labor.

With 2PP swings to the ALP of about five percent in the first week of the campaign, we would expect to see a range of swings of up to 25 percent, with plus five percent for Labor being the mid-point.

Of course, the figures will change during the campaign and other demographic indicators will emerge to pull some seats to swing to the Coalition. We will map these during the coming weeks.

This election I’m writing some research articles for the Australian Financial Review and doing Monday morning interviews with Radio National on election modelling for the May 21, 2022 election.

Catch you on the campaign trail, folks.  


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Political Voices: Past, Present and Future

Category:Election Profiles,National 2022 Tags : 

Profiling of the Voices 2019 demographics by Australian Development Strategies shows that grassroots campaigns by Voices candidates against Liberals in 2022 – led by professional women – could be even more devastating for Labor MPs if turned against them in 2025.

This means that the Federal election of 2022 is not so much a contest between the Liberal Party and the Labor Party, but more a contest about what future Labor and Liberal Governments will look like.

In the mid-1980’s, male Tradespersons was the biggest single male or female occupation group in Australia and Tradies dominated the ALP voting profile, and Female Professionals played an equally important role for the Liberal voting profile.

But both major parties have been challenged in 2022 by the loss of their historical bases of primary vote support during the past 40 years, among Tradies and Miners for Labor, and among Professionals for the Liberals.

The problem for both major parties is that, by November 2021, Female Professionals was the biggest single male or female occupation group in Australia and there were twice as many Professional Persons as Tradespersons, Clerks or Service Workers. And their vote is up for grabs.

I chart the demographics underling the decline in the attached
🔗 PDF – Political Voices Past, Present and Future

Political Voices Past, Present and Future by John Black, Australian Development Strategies

Coalition candidates in 2022 are vulnerable to well-funded and more professionally-managed “Voices” campaigns run by local activists, particularly when factionalised party machines select a favourite candidate with a negative personal vote, as this gives a leg-up to a Voices campaign.

Australian Development Strategies Modelling of booth-level profiles in a selection of Urban and Rural 2019 seats won or strongly contested by Independent or Green candidates, shows Voices candidates attracted support from some fast-growing demographics, including Agnostics and better-educated, professional women.

Economic trends infer the current demographic base of Voices candidates is likely to grow over time and, with a Labor win likely in 2022, this base could prove a bigger threat to Labor in 2025 than it is to the Liberals in 2022

Our ADS Senior Mapper Dr Jeanine McMullan has a 🔗Map showing the potential impact of Voices candidates in 2022.

The computed predicted Voices 2CP votes for Sydney (left) and Melbourne (right

The computed predicted Voices 2CP votes for Sydney (left) and Melbourne (right)


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Election Analysis 2019 - Esri Map - ADS

ELECTION ANALYSIS 2019

Category:National 2019 Tags : 

Here’s a fantastic Esri map done by Australian Development Strategies and Education Geographics Senior Mapper Dr Jeanine McMullan. It’s online, completely interactive, public and you can email it to your fellow election tragics. You can blow it up, reduce it, drag it around or select an address and see how it rated on each layer. Open it up at the link below, and then click on the little button in the top right corner of the page, to get some tips on how t o use it.

Among the other buttons at top right of the map, there are, from left, layers Layer - icon on Esri Map for all the key variables which decided who won the 2019 election, there’s bookmarks Bookmark icon Esri map for the major regions, so you can go there directly, there’s a score sheet of key indicators Score sheet indicator - icon Esri map toolbar under every screen being viewed with standardised scores (move the map around and watch the numbers update), there’s the info button , a share button Info - icon on Esri map toolbar so you can post the map to social media, a seat button Choose a seat icon on Esri Map Toolbar , so you can check out the scores for each individual seat and finally the legend for each layer displayed. Hours of fun from our mapper.

The link is https://egs-au.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=1a84d2f75fe04666a7501c5cd7921c0f


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Labor Digs a Hole with Miners - Federal Election 2019

LABOR DIGS A HOLE WITH MINERS

Category:National 2019 Tags : 

Hello again, political tragics. As we proceed with our 2019 profiling, the longer-term damage Labor has done to itself with working class men just keeps getting uglier.

The chart here tracks the declining profile of miners for the ALP since we first profiled national elections back in 1966.

Labor Digs a Hole with Miners - Federal Election 2019

In 1966 the Labor Party and Labour Movement were the same group in strong mining seats, such as Hunter, held by Labor MPs since 1910.

After male Tradies, male miners were the second most significant driver of the Labor 2PP vote in 1966. The strong mining seat of Hunter recorded a 1966 2PP vote for Labor of 74.4 percent, which was ten percent above the vote predicted by our 1966 model.

So Labor was not only winning the votes from miners, but winning extra votes from mining families, turning mining towns and cities like Newcastle and Broken Hill into Labor fortresses. If you worked in the mines, you were in the union and if you were in the union, you voted Labor and so did your family and your neighbours.

From 1966, the vote for Labor in mining seats began a long-term decline, with the profile for miners falling into negative territory in 1998. By 2019 male miners were as big a negative driver for Labor as they had been a positive driver in 1966. In other words, you were more likely to find miners in Coalition seats than Labor seats and the stats were significant to more than 99.9 percent confidence levels.

In 2019, the three seats with the largest 10 percent plus swings to the Coalition were Dawson, Capricornia and the above seat of Hunter, three of the top eight seats for male miners as a share of the male workforce.

The first two of these mining seats – Dawson and Capricornia – are now held by the Queensland LNP, with Hunter, the former rock-solid Labor seat now reduced to marginal status on 52.5 percent 2PP for Labor.

In fact, of the top eight seats for male miners, all but Hunter now elect non-Labor MPs.

To add insult to injury, when we were modelling the swings to the Coalition across these three mining seats, not only did they record ten percent plus swings to the Coalition, but these swings averaged five percent greater in each seat than the national swing model was predicting.

So miners are voting for the Coalition, so are their families and their neighbours. The model from 1966 has been turned completely on its head.

The mining fortress for Labor among working class men in the mines has fallen. Rebuilding it seems a task too far for the Labor party by 2022, if it remains fixated on fighting back the Green challenge to its MPs in its inner urban Green Left seats. The miners don’t want to pay for them anymore.

To quote Labor’s great Finance Minister from the Hawke Government WA Senator Peter Walsh: if you base your policy on the demands of a minor party, you are destined to become one.


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Shifting Demographic Tectonics - National Election 2019

SHIFTING DEMOGRAPHIC TECTONICS

Category:National 2019 Tags : 

Hi again, election tragics. We’re currently sifting through the statistical entrails of Saturday’s election, looking for key demographic characteristics of the ALP and Coalition votes and swings.

Peeling back the layers to find the underlying linkages between demographics and votes is time consuming and we’re also a bit busy working in the real world at the moment, running Education Geographics.

To keep you entertained, while we rummage around columns of stats, here’s a cute little Excel file which shows correlations going back to the election in 1966 for some key occupational indicators, male Tradies, female Clerks and Professional women.

Shifting Demographic Tectonics - Federal Election 2019

Female clerks and male Tradies have traditionally been huge groups in the workforce, and they still dominate our Working Family Stereotype across urban marginal seats, but the proportion of Working Families in the labour market has been steadily eroded over recent decades by technological change, now known as digital disruption. Meanwhile, the workplace share of female Professionals is still growing fast and has already overtaken female Clerks, but these professionals are more clustered in the inner-cities and now dominate our Goat Cheese Circle Stereotype.

As Labor’s profile among Tradies declined during the 1980s, it increased among white collar working women, firstly among Clerks, then among Professionals, retaining a broad basis of support for Labor candidates across a majority of seats, while nudging it towards the inner cities, until Kevin Rudd’s Religious Activist profile in 2007 lifted Labor’s votes in the outer suburbs of our major capitals.

This professional support for Labor was lost in 2016, when Malcolm Turnbull led the Liberals, attracting inner urban professionals but at the expense of suburban Working Families. In 2019, under the folksy Scott Morrison as Liberal Leader, professional women turned back to Labor in droves, especially in Goat Cheese Circle seats. While this strategy held up Labor’s vote in higher SES seats, it didn’t work out quite so well with Labor’s traditional Working Families, especially in LNP seats in Queensland.

To sum up: It’s always good for a Party to win a majority of the 2PP national vote, but it’s even better to win a majority of seats. In 2019, Scott Morrison won both by attracting support from marginal seats containing traditional Labor heartland voters and skipping the Goat Cheese Circle set.

As Morrison would say: How good is that?


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The Religious Rudd and the Grey Voters - Federal Election 2019

THE RELIGIOUS RUDD AND THE GREY VOTERS

Category:National 2019 Tags : 

Hi there again, election tragics. Sorry I’m late with this short article but I had to ice the cupcakes for our school election day fundraising stall. No, seriously, I did. And I had to stop the five year old eating all the chocolate sprinkles. This is a quick note as I have to drop off the jellies, which have hopefully set. So apologies if there’s any errors in the comments on individual seats.

https://www.elaborate.net.au/Excel/Stereotypes 2019 (003).xlsx

The previous piece on Stereotypes and Voting drew a big response, so I decided to re-send the same Stereotypes Excel File, which you can download and play with, but with added columns for the Activist Religions which voted against type for Kevin Rudd in 2007, as well as Aged Pensioners and also our mean dollar figures for Superannuation Income in 2015/16.

I’ve been running into a few self-funded retirees this past week and it’s fair to conclude this group won’t be swinging to Labor anytime soon. I also think, given the strong evangelical profile of the Prime Minister Scott Morrison, compared to his predecessor Malcolm Turnbull, that this group will be moving towards the Coalition tonight. Remember here that it’s the swings that are important, not their absolute level of support for either party. A small swing from a big group located in marginal seats is campaign gold for party strategists. A big swing from a small group can also be valuable, if it’s also located in marginal seats.

The Activist Religions. This represented about ten percent of the vote in 2007 and does so again in 2019. In 2007 we took all those religions dominating the swings to Labor and selected the same groups again from the last census for 2019. Normally these religions are clustered in safer Coalition seats, but there’s huge numbers of them across Queensland seats, including quite a few marginals. Of the top 25 seats ranked for Activist Religions, 15 are in Queensland. Given the small national swings we’re seeing, for the reasons I outlined above, I would expect this group to be moving towards the Liberal Leader Scott Morrison. Among the seats which could be impacted by any such movement include Lingiari, Longman and Braddon (Labor), Dickson, Forde, Flynn, Capricornia and Petrie  (Liberal). Labor would thus be a little more vulnerable in three seats and have less chance of picking up five marginal Queensland seats. At the other end of the Activist scale, the seats tend to be stonking rich and full of Goat Cheese Circle types, such as Wentworth, the former seat of Liberal Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull or inner city Green Left students and professionals, like Wills, the former seat of late Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke. I served as a humble backbencher with Bob and I can still smell his Havana cigars up the corridors in the Old Parliament House. He will be missed.

The Religious Rudd and Grey Voters - Federal Election 2019

Aged Pensioners. We model this data every couple of years and these figures are probably a bit dated, but still relevant. I really don’t know how much the hostility to Labor’s policies on franking and capital gains tax are going to flow through to less asset rich persons who have retired on the Aged Pension. I suppose a little, but nowhere near as much as for those on their own super schemes. Still, if you select all columns on the Excel File and rank by Aged Pensioners, you can see some seriously big numbers in marginal seats, including Page, Robertson (Coalition), Richmond, Braddon, Lyons, Bass, Dobell  (Labor). These could be real momentum stoppers for a small pro-Labor national swing on election night.

Super Income. We extracted this ATO data and averaged it out over persons for our modelling of income generally. When we rank the federal seats for this figure, the ACT just jumps out as the top of the list, with figures in the thousands, with the next highest seats also looking to be representative of retired public servants. It fairly warms my heart to think we sold Telstra to set up a national Future Fund to achieve these figures. In reality, I’m probably just jealous I can’t put my own retirement savings into the Future Fund, because neither party has had the wit to allow us. When we consider the figures for the seats outside Canberra, we need to discount for the numbers of retired public servants on gold plated super schemes. This means you could probably rule out Eden-Monaro, marginal Labor with a lot of retired public servants. Coalition marginals which could benefit include Gilmore and Corangamite, although the latter is nominally Labor after the redistribution. The only marginal Labor seat which could be impacted is Herbert, although there would be a lot of Herbert retired military service voters on more secure super schemes.  That’s about it, really. The per capita Super figures really level right out after the top 20 or so seats. Which probably explains why the ALP adopted the policy it did.

The risk here for the ALP tonight is the extent to which all retirees feel targeted by changes to their retirement incomes generally. As far as the evangelicals go, these voters tend to be pretty quiet at election times and keep their opinions to themselves until they get to the ballot box. I suspect this might be a sleeper for some Queensland marginals.


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Stereotypes and Voting - their significance in National Election 2019. Here’s some data in excel form for you to play with, in the lead up to election day.

STEREOTYPES AND VOTING

Category:National 2019 Tags : 

Hi there, election tragics. Here’s some data in Excel form for you to play with, in the lead up to election day and afterwards.

It’s in Excel form, so you can copy it, rank the seats, compare them with the vote and do your own sums with them on election night re the swings. We will try and do the same late next week, when the results are clear in close run seats.

https://www.elaborate.net.au/PDF/Stereotypes 2019.xlsx

The file shows the official ALP 2PP votes on current boundaries for all seats, plus our five most interesting stereotypes, based on 50 years of my own demographic research, including Labor’s demographic marketing campaign for the 1983 national election, which makes me very mature, indeed. I guess I’m the original tragic as far as demographic profiling is concerned.

As these are 2PP ALP votes, you can calculate the LNP 2PP vote by simply subtracting these figures from 100 percent for each seat, unless of course, it turns out to be won by an Independent.

Here’s a brief run down on the key stereotypes and their significance.

Stereotypes and Voting - National Election 2019

 

Working Families, are mainstream, average Aussie families, with skilled blue collar dad and a white collar mum, with an anxious eye on the family budget, flatlining real wages, transfer payments and tax cuts. Rank the excel file by this stereotype and you see a lot of them in marginal seats in Queensland and Western Australia. An awful lot. Too many to include here.

Goat Cheese Circle residents are inner city, very high income professionals. Lots of bike pants, Green votes, and senior public servants. They liked Malcolm Turnbull in 2016 but not Tony Abbott.  The votes of most of these are wasted in formerly safe Liberal seats, but some of these seats may swing to Independents  in NSW or Labor in Victoria.  A swing in 2019 against the liberals among this group would shore up my local member in Griffith and help Labor in Macnamara, the old Melbourne Ports. But not help Tony Abbott all that much.

Swinging Voters are made up of the demographics which consistently lead the swings either way at elections since 1966. Look for your local Nappy Valley, with lots of pre-school kids. Motivated by costs of housing, child care and part time jobs. These seats are strongly clustered in WA and any big swing amongst this demographic could turn very ugly for the Coalition, particularly very late on election night. I can still remember Mick Young late on 1969 election night, joking that the 1969 election would have been won for Labor, if there had been another state to the west of Western Australia. Conversely, the seats with fewer swinging voters which would be more likely stick to the Coalition are in Tasmania and National Party strongholds in the bush.

Coming of Age voters are young adults, often first time voters, moving away from parental political influences and starting out on life’s journey for themselves, with fewer visits to the Bank of Mum and Dad. There’s a few of these in marginal Coalition seats, like Brisbane, Chisholm, Swan and Reid and the one-time Labor seat of Ryan. There’s also some marginal Labor seats, like Griffith, Moreton, Hotham, Perth and Macnamara, but given the Newspoll swings in the relevant states, there’s not much joy there for the Coalition.

The Digitally Disrupted are working in blue collar and white collar jobs, currently among the first to be displaced by technology. There’s a big overlap with Working Families, which explains their anxieties at the moment. Typically these jobs are frozen in terms of numbers and then wither as a percentage of the workforce. In terms of seats, this is pretty safe territory for the Labor Opposition, but there are some marginals for the LNP in Queensland in Flynn and Forde. There’s also some marginals for Labor in Lindsay, Braddon and Lyons and if swings in NSW and Tasmania go the Coalition’s way, these would be vulnerable.

We’ve already posted some scatterplots using these stereotypes, showing how Goat Cheese Circle voters influenced the Green Primary vote in 2016 and how the Working Families group dominated those seats swinging to Labor. The full picture can be seen on our 2016 Dashboard under Demographic Profiles, Family Types, Voter Indices. https://www.elaborate.net.au/ADSElect2016%20PostVote.htm

It shows, subject to ecological fallacies of course, seats swinging to Labor in 2016 dominated by Working Families and the Digitally Disrupted and swings to the Coalition dominated by Goat Cheese Circle voters who liked Malcolm Turnbull.


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Longman By-Election 2018

LONGMAN BY-ELECTION 2018

Category:By-Elections,National 2019 Tags : 

The ADS team has prepared an exhaustive profile of by-election swings in Bennelong, New England, Longman and Mayo.

A full report of the swings and their implications for the 2019 election appears in the Weekend Australian.

Below is a link to the maps of the swings and the associated demographic drivers for Longman.

Click away and compare the swings to and from the major parties with key demographics in our statistical profile.

Click on the Map to view

Longman By-Election2018, The ADS team has prepared an exhaustive profile of by-election swings in Bennelong, New England, Longman and Mayo.