Aspirational Left voters rise again in NSW State Election

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Aspirational Left voters rise again in NSW State Election

Category:NSW Election 2023

Above is a snip of our ADS/Esri online map showing in shades of red the larger estimated Two Party Preferred swings to Labor in the March 25 NSW election at the close of counting on election night.
🔗 https://arcg.is/0rqGez

My preliminary analysis of the March 25 NSW State election vote and swings appears in today’s Australian Financial Review for subscribers only at
🔗 https://www.afr.com/politics/albanese-s-aspirational-left-piggybacks-nsw-labor-to-close-win-20230322-p5cugu

The analysis shows that the strongest swings to the ALP occurred in seats dominated by the better-paid Aspirational Left voters who also elected the Albanese Government and drove up private health insurance and private school enrolments during Covid lockdowns.
🔗 https://www.educationgeographics.net.au/new-face-of-politics/

Below is a chart from the preliminary analysis of the NSW results, showing the family income profiles of the seats you can see in the online map. Basically, the more high-income families in a state seat, shown to the right of the chart below, the bigger the 2PP swing to the ALP and the darker the red on the map, while more low to medium income families meant a smaller swing to Labor (below seven percent), or even a swing to Coalition, shown by darker shades of blue.

I should stress that only about half of the votes were counted on Saturday night, so the final results could vary to a sufficient degree to impact the results in a number of close seats.

I should also point out that that profile of both major parties in Australian politics are fading and, as they do, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to ascribe even a theoretical 2PP vote to the major parties in a quarter of the seats.

Pro ALP 2PP Swing NSW 2023. Big components of the Aspirational Left include Professional Women and Asian Migrants.

 

Big components of the Aspirational Left include Professional Women and Asian Migrants. Professional women are now the fastest growing occupational group among Australian workers and Migrants now make up more than 50 percent of Australian Population increases since 2001.

These groups are therefore likely to increase in numbers and influence in Australia in the coming decade and exert a strong and growing influence over future state and federal elections and the uptake of private education and private health insurance.

At ADS/EGS and HGS we will be including this new group in all our future modelling.


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Read the full background stories about the Aspirational Left Families now reshaping Australia

New Face of Politics

Category:By-Elections,Demographics

Read the full background stories about the Aspirational Left Families now reshaping Australia

Three key decisions that adults in Australia are making about their own lives, and their families, revolve around choosing who to vote for in an election, staying healthy and giving their kids the best education they can.

Sarah Ho, who moved with her family from Hong Kong when she was five, and sends her kids to a private school, is an emerging type of voter who election analyst and political demographer John Black describes as the aspirational migrant population, is drastically altering the shape and direction of culture and politics.

Sarah Ho isn’t wedded to a particular party. The marketing executive and mum of three, who lives in Lidcombe in Sydney’s west, always votes for the candidate whose policies align most with the health needs of her ageing parents, the education outcomes of her children, and someone who has progressive views on climate change.

You can now read the full Australian Financial Review stories about our research into this big emerging demographic group, which is re-shaping Australian political parties and changing the balance between private and public consumption within Australia’s health and education sectors.

With the approval of the AFR and the ABC, we are posting the original March 2 AFR page one and page three stories, together with the feature article and charts covering the Aspirational Left, along with follow-up interviews with John Black by Radio National’s Patricia Karvelas and ABC Brisbane Drive Time host Steve Austin. An ADS (Australian Development Strategies) map of the distribution of the Aspirational Left stereotype across current federal seats is also found in the links below.

Read more…  The rise of the ‘aspirational left’ voter who is remaking politics

The Aspirational Left - Steve Austin interviews John Black from Australian Development Strategies.   Steve Austin interviews John Black on ‘The Aspirational Left’

Podcast – Patricia Karvelas speaking with John Black
🔗 https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/could-a-new-demographic-tip-the-nsw-state-election-/102048382

Link to our recent Post: 🔗 Rise of the Aspirational Left voters reshaping Australia

Esri online map on the Aspirational Left by current federal seats from March 3, 2023

 

 


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Esri online map on the Aspirational Left by current federal seats from March 3, 2023

Rise of the Aspirational Left voters reshaping Australia

Category:Demographics,Election Profiles

Here’s a snip of an ADS/ESRI online map showing dark red shading for the three federal seats of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan. All three seats were won by the Greens from the Liberals or from Labor in 2022, despite big Two Party Preferred (2PP) swings and votes to the ALP.

https://arcg.is/0G4iL1

Esri online map on the Aspirational Left by current federal seats from March 3, 2023

These seats are coloured red because they’re among the top-rated seats in Australia for our new Aspirational Left Index prepared by Australian Development Strategies for our new 2021 Census modelling database.

Unfortunately for the ALP Candidates in these three seats, the Coalition was so on the nose with the Aspirational Left in 2022, that the three Coalition candidates each lost more than 10 percent of their 2019 primary vote.

This ten percent loss from the Coalition leaked strongly to local hard-working Green candidates, rather than to Labor, putting the Greens ahead of Labor in the final distribution of preferences, with four out five Labor voters then tipping out the leading Coalition candidate and electing the Green.

This story played out across the nation in 2022, with 20 seats changing hands. The Coalition lost 18 seats, ten to the Labor Party, six to Teal Independents and Ryan and Brisbane to the Greens. Labor lost Griffith to the Greens and Fowler to an Independent.

Of these 20 seats changing hands in 2022, 14 of them are among the list of our top seats on the Aspirational Left Index. In other words, Aspirational Left voters decided which party won Government in 2022 and which MPs dominated the cross benches.

 

Radio National Podcast on Aspirational Left role in elections, from March 3, 2023:

Could a new demographic tip the NSW state election? – ABC Radio National

Could a new demographic tip the NSW state election? (Image Unsplash: Daria Nepriakhina)

Could a new demographic tip the NSW state election? (Unsplash: Daria Nepriakhina)

Australian Financial Review Aspirational Left feature article, from March 2, 2023 for AFR subscribers:

https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-rise-of-the-aspirational-left-voter-who-is-remaking-politics-20230224-p5cndx

 

BACKGROUND TO THE RESEARCH

When the Australian Electoral Commission provided the final Two Party Preferred votes and swings from the May election in the second half of 2022, we were able to use the 2021 Census results to re-calculate our 2022 election profiles and all our Stereotypes and models of unemployment, participation rates, wealth, taxable incomes, sources of income, transfer payments, school enrolments and school fees.

We then began using the new census when our Education Geographics (EGS) arm profiled enrolment churn across more than 120 Australian non-government schools and our Health Geographics (HGS) arm profiled an unexplained surge in numbers of Australians taking out private health insurance.

Across these three areas of research by ADS/EGS/HGS we began seeing the influence on voting, choice of education sector and increase of private health insurance by a new aspirational and transactional demographic group we named the Aspirational Left.

Big components of the Aspirational Left include Professional Women and Asian Migrants. Professional women are now the fastest growing occupational group among Australian workers and Migrants now make up more than 50 percent of Australian Population increases since 2001.

These groups are therefore likely to increase in numbers and influence in Australia in the coming decade and exert a strong and growing influence over future state and federal elections and the uptake of private education and private health insurance.

At ADS/EGS and HGS we will be including this new group in all our future modelling.

 


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Political Pitfalls Ahead - AFR New Year Special

Political Pitfalls Ahead

Category:Demographics,Education,Health,Housing

I have a little opinion piece in the Australian Financial Review’s New Year Special Edition on some of the political and economic issues awaiting the attention of the Commonwealth Government during 2023 and AFR subscribers can find it here: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/albo-looks-a-shoo-in-but-a-lot-could-go-wrong-in-2023-20221227-p5c8we

The story uncovers some unexpected Covid impacts for 2023 and beyond for population growth, the labour market, the economy and the housing market, along with Energy, Health and Education.

Education Geographics Chief Mapper Dr Jeanine McMullan has prepared a publicly-available online map, showing the latest spatial impacts of Covid on population growth and you can access the map here:  https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/05c26440e9474666ba48ecc8384f24d8

Education Geographics Chief Mapper Dr Jeanine McMullan has prepared a publicly-available online map, showing the latest spatial impacts of Covid on population growth

We hope you enjoy the article and the map. All the best for Christmas and the New Year folks!


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Tax cut targets voted Labour into power by John Black

Tax cut targets voted Labor into power

Category:By-Elections

I got a great run in the Australian Financial Review on Wednesday this week on the need for a fair dinkum progressive economic reform package from the new Government, to pay for rising costs in Aged Care, Health, Defence and the NDIS, something that all income groups in Australia could support.

For those with an Australian Financial Review subscription you can see the article by Clicking Here. We have a PDF version of the article available by Clicking Here..

 

📷 The Australian Financial Review


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What if the PM ended the climate wars for good?

What if the PM ended the climate wars for good?

Category:Election Profiles

If Labor’s 2030 carbon emissions target is blocked by the Greens in the Senate, most Canberra Observers would expect Anthony Albanese to crab walk away. But what could happen in a double dissolution if he called their bluff, to end the Climate Wars started by the Greens in 2009?

🔗  Read More…

📷AFR


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I cannot believe this! Here's Tim's perfect Canadian toasted marshmallows #Spatsizi The man does it with an electric drill on slow speed. Unbelievable. Fantastic taste.

Klahova Lake – Spatsizi

Category:Recreational Research

Beautiful final day with no. 1 son at Klahoya Lake today. We parked the float tubes for a camp fire lunch by the lake. Unbeatable #Spatsizi

Beautiful final day with no. 1 son at Klahoya Lake today. We parked the float tubes for a camp fire lunch by the lake. Unbeatable #Spatsizi

 

No. 1 son in float tube on Lake Klahoya today. The stone flies were landing on the tube, by way of a hint on fly choice #Spatsizi

No. 1 son in float tube on Lake Klahoya today. The stone flies were landing on the tube, by way of a hint on fly choice #Spatsizi

Our guide Tim shows us the Canadian way to toast marshmallows on our last night #Spatsizi

Our guide Tim shows us the Canadian way to toast marshmallows on our last night #Spatsizi

I cannot believe this! Here’s Tim’s perfect Canadian toasted marshmallows #Spatsizi The man does it with an electric drill on slow speed. Unbelievable. Fantastic taste.

I cannot believe this! Here's Tim's perfect Canadian toasted marshmallows #Spatsizi The man does it with an electric drill on slow speed. Unbelievable. Fantastic taste.


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Number two son with Papa Ray and soon to be released Grayling at the Grayling Hole #Spatsizi

Grayling Hole – Spatsizi

Category:Recreational Research

We’re all off to the Grayling Hole #Spatsizi today. Woo hoo!

We're all off to the Grayling Hole #Spatsizi today. Woo hoo!

Spot the Bald Eagle on the nest in top of the broken tree #Spatsizi

Spot the Bald Eagle on the nest in top of the broken tree #Spatsizi

My little girl getting a lesson on fly selection from Master Guide Ray Collingwood at the Grayling Hole today #Spatsizi

My little girl getting a lesson on fly selection from Master Guide Ray Collingwood at the Grayling Hole today #Spatsizi

Lunch around the camp fire at the Grayling Hole today #Spatsizi

Lunch around the camp fire at the Grayling Hole today #Spatsizi

Number two son with Papa Ray and soon to be released Grayling at the Grayling Hole #Spatsizi

Number two son with Papa Ray and soon to be released Grayling at the Grayling Hole #Spatsizi

Number one son sitting on the bear-proof food safe at the Grayling Hole #Spatsizi I was wondering what the bear was supposed to eat if it couldn’t get your picnic basket.

Number one son sitting on the bear-proof food safe at the Grayling Hole #Spatsizi I was wondering what the bear was supposed to eat if it couldn't get your picnic basket.


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So far you've been spared the grip'n'grin shots ... but ... well ... these feisty little guys were so darn pretty we couldn't resist #Spatsizi today.

Time to catch (and release) some unwary trout.

Category:Recreational Research

Day whatever of our week dawns #Spatsizi and the pilots are already fuelling their floatplanes to take us out to catch (and release) some unwary trout. Hope springs eternal in the breast of this old trout hunter.

Day whatever of our week dawns #Spatsizi and the pilots are already fuelling their floatplanes to take us out to catch (and release) some unwary trout. Hope springs eternal in the breast of this old trout hunter.

Ray Collingwood our master guide, is taking the young-uns out fishing today. Here he’s getting to know them at breakfast.

Ray Collingwood our master guide, is taking the young-uns out fishing today. Here he's getting to know them at breakfast.

Our three Amigos head off to fly fish Lake Tuaton today. Mum and Dad have the day off to chase trout on Lake Laslui.

 

Our three Amigos head off to fly fish Lake Tuaton today. Mum and Dad have the day off to chase trout on Lake Laslui.

 

So far you’ve been spared the grip’n’grin shots … but … well … these feisty little guys were so darn pretty we couldn’t resist #Spatsizi today.

So far you've been spared the grip'n'grin shots ... but ... well ... these feisty little guys were so darn pretty we couldn't resist #Spatsizi today.


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View wasn’t hard to take on our hill climb today.

Today we’re mountain climbing behind Lake Ella

Category:Recreational Research

In bear country, I like a guide who packs heat.

In bear country, I like a guide who packs heat.

Today we’re mountain climbing behind Lake Ella. All packed and ready to fly to the lake. Talk later.

Today we're mountain climbing behind Lake Ella. All packed and ready to fly to the lake. Talk later.

At the top of our hill climb today. Spot the float planes at the bottom of the shot. It was quite a hike #Spatsizi

 

Tough day ... hot chocolate and marshmallows in the snow.

Tough day … hot chocolate and marshmallows in the snow.

 

View wasn’t hard to take on our hill climb today.

Today we’re mountain climbing behind Lake Ella. All packed and ready to fly to the lake. Talk later.