Category Archives: Australia Votes

Chat with John Stanley of 2GB/4BC this week, at the tail end of yet another hot and humid Queensland summer of cyclones, heatwaves and floods.

John Stanley and John Black – 26th March, 2024

Category:2GB,AFR,Australia Votes,Demographics,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

I caught up with John Stanley from 2GB/4BC on Tuesday night for an informal chat about an election review article I’d written for the Australian Financial Review on Monday. Here is a  .pdf link to that page. John and I talked about demographic and political events and themes over the timeline since the May 21,


There’s an hilarious cartoon in the Australian Financial Review today, with a story from me below it. My op ed piece runs through the elections and by-elections we’ve had since the last Federal election on May 21 2022. There’s some good news in there for the Government I think, from the evidence and explanations of why it’s occurring.

What happened on the weekend to rev up the week ahead.

Category:AFR,Australia Votes,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

There’s an hilarious cartoon in the Australian Financial Review today, with a story from me below it. My op ed piece runs through the elections and by-elections we’ve had since the last Federal election on May 21 2022. There’s some good news in there for the Government I think, from the evidence and explanations of


I’ve written a profile of the by-election on Saturday in Dunkley for the Australian Financial Review and we have added Map.

Dunkley By-Election

Category:AFR,Australia Votes,John's Interviews & Media,State Elections Tags : 

I’ve written a profile of the by-election on Saturday in Dunkley for the Australian Financial Review, putting it in the context of our 2022 National Election Personal Vote Profiles and our profiles in Aston and Fadden.    See AFR story here: 🔗 https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dunkley-exposes-further-shift-away-from-major-parties-20240303-p5f9dw The three individual seat profiles use ADS modelling of personal votes to


Chat with John Stanley of 2GB/4BC this week, at the tail end of yet another hot and humid Queensland summer of cyclones, heatwaves and floods.

John Stanley and John Black – 29th January, 2024

Category:2GB,Australia Votes,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

Had a chat with John Stanley of 2GB/4BC this week, at the tail end of yet another hot and humid Queensland summer of cyclones, heatwaves and  floods. I recall making the suggestion to John that if the Labor PM was planning on fighting another election over the impact of global warming, then it would be


Seats won by major political groups in 2022 by SES & income quartiles

The odds still point to another close Labor win in 2025.

Category:AFR,Australia Votes,State Elections Tags : 

My editor has okayed me posting the original story on spatial electoral strategy from the Australian Financial Review’s special New Year’s Edition and here it is. It looks as though 2024 will be a rerun of 2023 in many respects, albeit with signs of cresting and then stabilising for population growth, prices and interest rates.


The quest for unclaimed ground, table 2 shows 20 seats which changed hands in 2022 by new MP and Party, votes, SES & Income Quartiles

The Quest for Unclaimed Ground

Category:AFR,Australia Votes,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

I have an election strategy piece in the Australian Financial Review special New Year’s Edition for 2024. For AFR subscribers, the link can be found here: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/odds-for-2024-point-to-another-close-labor-win-in-2025-20231212-p5eqv2 The thrust of the AFR article is that both leaders of the two major parties seem to be talking to the converted demographics which already dominate their own


Bruised Labour back to basics

Bruised Labor Back To Basics

Category:AFR,Australia Votes,Demographics,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

I had an opinion piece in the Financial Review today on the demographics driving the Voice Yes and No votes. The online edition has a lot of the charts which you might find interesting. Here’s the link to my online op ed (behind the AFR paywall): 🔗 https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/demographics-explain-how-we-voted-on-saturday-20231012-p5ebuu Our chief Mapper and head of Health Geographics


Aspirational Left Voters Rise Again in NSW State Election

Aspirational Left voters rise again in NSW State Election

Category:AFR,Australia Votes,John's Interviews & Media,State Elections Tags : 

Above is a snip of our ADS/Esri online map showing in shades of red the larger estimated Two Party Preferred swings to Labor in the March 25 NSW election at the close of counting on election night. 🔗 https://arcg.is/0rqGez My preliminary analysis of the March 25 NSW State election vote and swings appears in today’s


Read the full background stories about the Aspirational Left Families now reshaping Australia

New Face of Politics

Category:ABC,AFR,Australia Votes,Demographics,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

Read the full background stories about the Aspirational Left Families now reshaping Australia Three key decisions that adults in Australia are making about their own lives, and their families, revolve around choosing who to vote for in an election, staying healthy and giving their kids the best education they can. Sarah Ho, who moved with


Esri online map on the Aspirational Left by current federal seats from March 3, 2023

Rise of the Aspirational Left voters reshaping Australia

Category:ABC,AFR,Australia Votes,Demographics,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

Here’s a snip of an ADS/ESRI online map showing dark red shading for the three federal seats of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan. All three seats were won by the Greens from the Liberals or from Labor in 2022, despite big Two Party Preferred (2PP) swings and votes to the ALP. https://arcg.is/0G4iL1 These seats are coloured