Category Archives: AFR

Seats won by major political groups in 2022 by SES & income quartiles

The odds still point to another close Labor win in 2025.

Category:AFR,Australia Votes,State Elections Tags : 

My editor has okayed me posting the original story on spatial electoral strategy from the Australian Financial Review’s special New Year’s Edition and here it is. It looks as though 2024 will be a rerun of 2023 in many respects, albeit with signs of cresting and then stabilising for population growth, prices and interest rates.


The quest for unclaimed ground, table 2 shows 20 seats which changed hands in 2022 by new MP and Party, votes, SES & Income Quartiles

The Quest for Unclaimed Ground

Category:AFR,Australia Votes,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

I have an election strategy piece in the Australian Financial Review special New Year’s Edition for 2024. For AFR subscribers, the link can be found here: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/odds-for-2024-point-to-another-close-labor-win-in-2025-20231212-p5eqv2 The thrust of the AFR article is that both leaders of the two major parties seem to be talking to the converted demographics which already dominate their own


Bruised Labour back to basics

Bruised Labor Back To Basics

Category:AFR,Australia Votes,Demographics,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

I had an opinion piece in the Financial Review today on the demographics driving the Voice Yes and No votes. The online edition has a lot of the charts which you might find interesting. Here’s the link to my online op ed (behind the AFR paywall): 🔗 https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/demographics-explain-how-we-voted-on-saturday-20231012-p5ebuu Our chief Mapper and head of Health Geographics


The kids and I are getting our fair share of the pie before packing for our trip to NZ next week.

Angling for a share

Category:AFR,Recreational Research Tags : 

The kids and I are getting our fair share of the pie before packing for our trip to NZ next week. Apparently, I’m fact finding, as well as fish finding, as my AFR editor is angling for a hook on a NZ election story. I’m in party mode already, as you can probably tell.


Aspirational Left Voters Rise Again in NSW State Election

Aspirational Left voters rise again in NSW State Election

Category:AFR,Australia Votes,John's Interviews & Media,State Elections Tags : 

Above is a snip of our ADS/Esri online map showing in shades of red the larger estimated Two Party Preferred swings to Labor in the March 25 NSW election at the close of counting on election night. 🔗 https://arcg.is/0rqGez My preliminary analysis of the March 25 NSW State election vote and swings appears in today’s


Read the full background stories about the Aspirational Left Families now reshaping Australia

New Face of Politics

Category:ABC,AFR,Australia Votes,Demographics,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

Read the full background stories about the Aspirational Left Families now reshaping Australia Three key decisions that adults in Australia are making about their own lives, and their families, revolve around choosing who to vote for in an election, staying healthy and giving their kids the best education they can. Sarah Ho, who moved with


Esri online map on the Aspirational Left by current federal seats from March 3, 2023

Rise of the Aspirational Left voters reshaping Australia

Category:ABC,AFR,Australia Votes,Demographics,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

Here’s a snip of an ADS/ESRI online map showing dark red shading for the three federal seats of Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan. All three seats were won by the Greens from the Liberals or from Labor in 2022, despite big Two Party Preferred (2PP) swings and votes to the ALP. https://arcg.is/0G4iL1 These seats are coloured


Political Pitfalls Ahead - AFR New Year Special

Political Pitfalls Ahead

Category:AFR,Demographics,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

I have a little opinion piece in the Australian Financial Review’s New Year Special Edition on some of the political and economic issues awaiting the attention of the Commonwealth Government during 2023 and AFR subscribers can find it here: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/albo-looks-a-shoo-in-but-a-lot-could-go-wrong-in-2023-20221227-p5c8we The story uncovers some unexpected Covid impacts for 2023 and beyond for population growth, the


Tax cut targets voted Labour into power by John Black

Tax cut targets voted Labor into power

Category:AFR,Australia Votes,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

I got a great run in the Australian Financial Review on Wednesday this week on the need for a fair dinkum progressive economic reform package from the new Government, to pay for rising costs in Aged Care, Health, Defence and the NDIS, something that all income groups in Australia could support. For those with an


What if the PM ended the climate wars for good?

What if the PM ended the climate wars for good?

Category:AFR,Australia Votes,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

If Labor’s 2030 carbon emissions target is blocked by the Greens in the Senate, most Canberra Observers would expect Anthony Albanese to crab walk away. But what could happen in a double dissolution if he called their bluff, to end the Climate Wars started by the Greens in 2009? 🔗  Read More… 📷AFR