Category Archives: Federal Elections

Initial 2025 ADS Election Report on Australian Federal Election by John Black of Australian Development Strategies.

Initial 2025 ADS Election Report

Category:AFR,Australia Votes,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

We’ve just finished some preliminary charts and an online map (see map link on the first page) on the 2025 results based on the early counts. We will update with the final primary and 2PP results in a week or so. It was a really interesting result, in terms of the preference allocations to the


John Black was interviewed by 2GB’s John Stanley this morning about his current predictions for the next federal election due before May 17.

2GB’s John Stanley & John Black 30th Dec, 2024

Category:2GB,AFR,Australia Votes,Demographics,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

I was interviewed by 2GB’s John Stanley this morning about my current predictions for the next federal election due before May 17, which currently puts Peter Dutton ahead in the race to win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives and hence form a Coalition Government with Peter Dutton as Prime Minister. Here’s


Profile of Modelled Primary & 2PP votes by Incomes for Families- with kids.

Forthcoming Federal Elections Current State of Play

Category:AFR,Australia Votes,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

I had a story in the New Year’s edition of the AFR on the current state of play across individual seats at the forthcoming Federal Election. Here’s the link to the story, behind the AFR paywall: 🔗 It looks like Albo might need that beach house in 2025  https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/it-looks-like-albo-might-need-that-beach-house-in-2025-20241227-p5l0ss. There’s a lot that can happen


John Black had a chat with Laura Tingle on the ABC 7:30 Report on Monday night out the possible range of outcomes for the political parties.

It’s Election Time Again!

Category:ABC,Australia Votes,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

I had a chat with Laura Tingle on the ABC 7:30 Report on Monday night about the possible range of outcomes for the political parties and independents at the national elections, due by May 17 next year. We also canvassed some of the issues driving voters when they make their voting decision. Fellow election tragics


Qld vote a pivotal time for Greens. Queensland vote a pivotal moment for Greens,  as it analyses the electoral fortunes of the Greens since the party rose from the ashes of the old Australian Democrats 20 years ago.

Queensland vote a pivotal moment for Greens

Category:AFR,Australia Votes,Federal Elections,State Elections Tags : 

I wrote a Queensland State election preview for the Australian Financial Review which appeared at the weekend and the link is here, albeit behind the AFR paywall.   https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/queensland-vote-a-pivotal-moment-for-greens-20241024-p5kkyl The story is headlined:  Queensland vote a pivotal moment for Greens, as it analyses the electoral fortunes of the Greens since the party rose from the ashes


Last weekend The Australian Financial Review published my short review of the role of religion and ethnicity in Australian politics since the 1960s.

John Stanley & John Black 8th July, 2024

Category:2GB,AFR,Australia Votes,Demographics,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

Last weekend The Australian Financial Review published my short review of the role of religion and ethnicity in Australian politics since the 1960s. My article was written in the context of the rise of the Muslim vote in the UK election last week and the implications of this outcome for the Australian General election, scheduled


I canvas some of the underlying demographics to this trend with John Stanley on Monday and the link the podcast is here

John Stanley & John Black 17th June, 2024

Category:2GB,Australia Votes,Demographics,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

Political Opinion polls can be pretty unreliable at times, but lately they’ve all been moving in the same direction, which is down for the satisfaction for Anthony Albanese as PM, down for the ALP primary vote, down for the Two Party Preferred Labor vote and down for the job  the Albanese Govt is doing on


Chat with John Stanley of 2GB/4BC this week, at the tail end of yet another hot and humid Queensland summer of cyclones, heatwaves and floods.

John Stanley and John Black – 26th March, 2024

Category:2GB,AFR,Australia Votes,Demographics,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

I caught up with John Stanley from 2GB/4BC on Tuesday night for an informal chat about an election review article I’d written for the Australian Financial Review on Monday. Here is a  .pdf link to that page. John and I talked about demographic and political events and themes over the timeline since the May 21,


There’s an hilarious cartoon in the Australian Financial Review today, with a story from me below it. My op ed piece runs through the elections and by-elections we’ve had since the last Federal election on May 21 2022. There’s some good news in there for the Government I think, from the evidence and explanations of why it’s occurring.

What happened on the weekend to rev up the week ahead.

Category:AFR,Australia Votes,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

There’s an hilarious cartoon in the Australian Financial Review today, with a story from me below it. My op ed piece runs through the elections and by-elections we’ve had since the last Federal election on May 21 2022. There’s some good news in there for the Government I think, from the evidence and explanations of


Chat with John Stanley of 2GB/4BC this week, at the tail end of yet another hot and humid Queensland summer of cyclones, heatwaves and floods.

John Stanley and John Black – 29th January, 2024

Category:2GB,Australia Votes,Federal Elections,John's Interviews & Media Tags : 

Had a chat with John Stanley of 2GB/4BC this week, at the tail end of yet another hot and humid Queensland summer of cyclones, heatwaves and  floods. I recall making the suggestion to John that if the Labor PM was planning on fighting another election over the impact of global warming, then it would be