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Tag Archives: Election 2022

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2022 Federal Election Top Income Quartile Map

2022 Federal Election Top Income Quartile Map

Category:Election Profiles,MAY 21 ELECTION COMMENTS Tags : 

If you want to know which federal seats are most likely to swing strongly to the Teal candidates at the Federal election on May 21, check out the 🔗Map below.

2022 Federal Election Top Income Quartile Map

The map shows  the percentage of top income quartile persons in 2022 Federal seats in darker shades of teal and is modelled by ADS from the latest available Australian Tax Office data.

Demographic break downs of national Newspoll summaries published in The Australian between early 2020 and the start of the 2022 election campaign, indicate that about one in eight voters in this top income quartile had swung their previously strong support in primary vote terms from the Coalition, directly across to Voices or “Teal” candidates, where a Teal candidate was available.

To put this in perspective, in early 2020, nearly half of all voters in this income group cast their vote for Coalition candidates and in the first quarter of 2022, this figure was down to one in three.

While this may well be the national sentiment among top income earners, where no Teal candidate is available at this election, there is still likely to be a smaller Two Party Preferred swing from the Coalition to Labor from about one in 12 voters among this group.  This disaffection from top income workers represents serious hurt for Liberal MPs in what have been their traditional strongholds.

We’ve been looking at the demographic breakdowns by income in individual seat polls and nothing we’ve seen so far contradicts the above trend up to the second week of the campaign.

Nonetheless, we will be watching future Newspoll summaries, presuming another one is available before the election.


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Australia votes on Saturday 21, 2022 and commented by John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Federal Election Profiles 2022

Category:Election Profiles,National 2022 Tags : 

Election Profiles 2022

Monday 23rd May, 2022
🎙
John Black: Election earthquake signals death of major parties
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas

To Listen click link
🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/election-earthquake-signals-death-of-major-parties/13893828

Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Image: ABC  RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/


Election Profiles 2022

Monday 23rd May, 2022
Women’s teal wave could keep breaking in 2025
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Womens Teal Vote Could Keep Breaking in 2025

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Monday, May 23, 2022, pages from 13 to 13.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


1 Day to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Friday 20th May,2022
Coalition Closing Gap On Labor
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Coalition closing gap on Labor by John Black

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Friday, May 20, 2022, pages from 39 to 39.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


2 Days to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Due to popular demand (my wife Jeanine thought it was a good idea), I’m re-posting the PDF I prepared a few months ago for my Australian Financial Review article of February 15 on the rise of the Teal vote and the associated decline of the primary vote for the major parties. It may help you on election night to understand why the major party primary votes have fallen, and also to  follow the larger swings to Labor in seats where popular Coalition members have retired, such as Bennelong or Casey.

Monday14th February, 2022
Political Voices: Past, Present & Future

 To Read click link
🔗 https://www.educationgeographics.net.au/political-voices-past-present-and-future/

 


3 days to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Wednesday 18th May,2022
How House Prices Reflect The Way You Vote
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

How house prices reflect the way you vote by John Black

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Wednesday, May 18, 2022, pages from 14 to 14.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com

 


5 Days to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Monday 16th May, 2022
🎙
John Black: Election Campaign Enters Final Sprint
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas

To Listen click link
🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/election-campaign-enters-final-sprint/13883250

Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Image: ABC  RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/


1 Week to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Friday 13th, May 2022
As tradies deserted ALP, so career women turn Liberal seats teal
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

As tradies deserted ALP, so career women turn Liberal seats teal. Female professionals lead the demographic desertion in what use to be the safest Coalition electorates.

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review Friday May 13, 2022 Page 43 snip to PDF.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


3 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Wednesday 4th May 2022
Inner Brissie could have gone teal
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Inner Brissie could have gone Teal

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Wednesday, May 4, 2022, pages from 46 to 46.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


3 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Wednesday 4th May 2022
Inner Brissie could have gone teal
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Wednesday, May 4, 2022, pages from 46 to 46.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


3 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Monday 2nd May, 2022
🎙
John Black: Labor on track for win
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas

ABC RN To Listen click link
🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/labor-on-track-for-election-win/13862818

Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Image: ABC  RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/

 

4 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Thursday 21 April, 2022
Albo’s not kicking with the wind
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Albo's not kicking with the wind. Despite the self-inflicted wounds, Labour remains in front in a majority of seats. But the margins are getting tighter.

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Thursday, April 21, 2022, pages from 38 to 38.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com

 

3 Weeks to Go to Pre-Poll Voting

Tuesday 19th April, 2022

Australia Votes May 21, 2022 comments by John Black former Labor Senator  Starts May 9, 2022, 12 days before voting day on May 21, 2022.
🔗 https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/how-to-vote/how-to-cast-your-vote

 


4 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Tuesday 19th April, 2022
🎙
John Black: Election still Labor’s to lose
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas

ABC RN To Listen click link
🔗https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/john-black:-the-election-is-still-labors-to-lose/13844148

Guest: John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Image: ABC  RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/


6 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Tuesday 13th April, 2022
Too soon to call, but the demographics favour labor
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Too soon to call, but the demographics favour labor

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Wednesday, April 13, 2022, pages from 43 to 43.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


6 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Monday 11th April, 2022
🎙 “Are the published opinion polls correct?”
episode from ABC “RN Breakfast” with Patricia Karvelas

To Listen click link
🔗 https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/are-the-published-opinion-polls-correct/13835438 

Guest: 
John Black, former Labor Senator and Chief Executive of Australian Development Strategies

Available now through the ABC listen App – bit.ly/ABCradioApp

Image: ABC  RN : https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/


11 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Tuesday 29th March, 2022
Don’t order the sympathy cards for Morrison just yet
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Don't order the sympathy cards for Morrison just yet

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Tuesday, March 29, 2022, pages from 39 to 39.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


14 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Tuesday 15th February, 2022
Women To Deliver Shock Election
by John Black – AFR – Editorial and Opinion

Women to deliver election shocks

 To Read click link
🔗 Financial Review, Tuesday, February 15, 2022, pages from 36 to 37.pdf

Image: AFR : https://www.afr.com


14 Weeks to Go – Election Profiles 2022

Monday14th February, 2022
Political Voices: Past, Present & Future

 To Read click link
🔗 https://www.educationgeographics.net.au/political-voices-past-present-and-future/