From 2008 to 2017, half the increases in Independent enrolments have been in the bottom fee quartile of schools by student numbers.
Three quarters of the increases have been within the bottom two fee quartiles of schools by student numbers.
However, around 2014, this pattern of growth changed and from 2014 to 2017, the growth in Independent schools charging $5,000 to $11,000 slowed, due to losses of working family jobs in their dominant catchment suburbs.
Growth however, jumped for some high fee schools, covering predominantly higher SES suburbs, due to growth of professional jobs and the wealth effect of low interest rates, driving up the value of investments in real estate and equities.
This pattern has been observed in the national data, such as we see above and it has been noticed in the profiles of more than 100 larger non-Government schools.
In some Non-Government schools with wedge-shaped catchments covering both inner-urban professional areas and more middle-class areas further from the CBD, we have seen both of the above trends in the same catchment, with enrolments growing in inner urban professional areas, but declining in middle class suburbs.