School Enrolments Archives - Education Geographics

Tag Archives: School Enrolments

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COVID-19 and the Impact of the jobs market on Non-Government school enrolments for 2021

COVID-19 and the Impact of the jobs market on Non-Government school enrolments for 2021

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Dear Colleagues,  due to the changing environment and our response to COVID-19, I will be posting a series of updates on the current research being undertaken by Education Geographics, which may assist Australian Non-Government schools with their 2021 planning. You are welcome to distribute these updates to your school boards and risk assessment committees and your feedback would be appreciated.

At Education Geographics and Australian Development Strategies, we’ve been modelling Non-Government schools and their interaction with the Labour market since 2004.

We’ve noticed that the growth or decline in the number of jobs in a school catchment in the second half of the year tends to drive enrolments up or down in the following year (as you can see in the national chart on Australian Participation rates and Non-Government Market Share from 1998 to 2019).

 

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COVID-19 and the Impact of the jobs market on Non-Government school enrolments for 2021

 


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Digital Disruption Vs Wealth - Education Geographics, John Black

DIGITAL DISRUPTION VS WEALTH EFFECT

Category:Education Tags : 

From 2008 to 2017, half the increases in Independent enrolments have been in the bottom fee quartile of schools by student numbers.

Three quarters of the increases have been within the bottom two fee quartiles of schools by student numbers.

However, around 2014, this pattern of growth changed and from 2014 to 2017, the growth in Independent schools charging $5,000 to $11,000 slowed, due to losses of working family jobs in their dominant catchment suburbs.

Growth however, jumped for some high fee schools, covering predominantly higher SES suburbs, due to growth of professional jobs and the wealth effect of low interest rates, driving up the value of investments in real estate and equities.

This pattern has been observed in the national data, such as we see above and it has been noticed in the profiles of more than 100 larger non-Government schools.

In some Non-Government schools with wedge-shaped catchments covering both inner-urban professional areas and more middle-class areas further from the CBD, we have seen both of the above trends in the same catchment, with enrolments growing in inner urban professional areas, but declining in middle class suburbs.